Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Trump Strengthens Brand With Immigration August

Dems hang tough in safe GOP districts during special elections, but victories are elusive
Here’s what we learned from the special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District Tuesday night:

Things are really, really close. But they are tight in lots of places.

Democrats have repeatedly transformed special elections in what are otherwise safe GOP districts into dogfights over the past year and a half. There was no reason the contest in Ohio should have been tight. Former Rep. Pat Tiberi, R-Ohio, long held the district.

Prior to that, Ohio Gov. John Kasich represented the district in Washington. But then again, Democrats have repeatedly put into play historically Republican districts in special elections.

Consider contests in Kansas, Georgia, Montana and South Carolina. Democrats came close to winning them all – but didn’t. Democrats finally won a special election on GOP turf in late March. Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., emerged victorious – but barely.
Progs still see their wave coming: Here's the real lesson of the Ohio special election
Consider that the 12th district is not, by any traditional measure, a toss-up district. Taking in the northern and eastern suburbs of Columbus -- and stretching to more rural areas further east -- it has been held by a Republican member of Congress continuously for the past three decades. In 2012, even while losing the state to President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney won the 12th by 10 points. Four years later, Donald Trump carried it by 11 points.

Based on those numbers, this is not a seat that should be at all competitive -- even in a special election -- if the national playing field was flat-ish. Of course, we know it's not -- based on lots and lots of other results this year. The playing field -- as it so often is in a midterm election with one party in control of all the levers of power in Washington -- is clearly tilted toward Democrats, and will be this November. The question that needs to come into better focus is how tilted.
Biased polls are useful as long as they're consistent. 536 has an aggregate poll showing Democrats up by 8%. The generic Democrat midterm lead from 2014 back to 2002 was -2%, -9%, +12%, -2%. Republicans usually have higher turnout, but college educated white women are breaking hard for Democrats and they're reliable voters.

Republicans usually rally late, but if the Democrat advantage doesn't close soon it spells trouble in November. Trump helped by supporting the man who might be second to Stephen Miller on immigration restriction. If Kobach holds on to his narrow lead, Democrats will make the Kansas governor's election a national referendum on immigration policy.

Democrats have added immigration to their unpopular abortion and gun control positions. Although the nation is very divided on abortion and guns, it is the pro-life and 2A voters who come out in force. Immigration is similar, except that independents side with Republicans on immigration far more than on guns or abortion. Stephen Miller is closer to the center on immigration than the average Democrat.

Friday, August 03, 2018

You Can't Control the Environment

Sailer takes a victory lap.

A Half Century of Amnesia
Klein goes on to recount various small-scale academic studies that found that when researchers point out to white people how fast they are being demographically overwhelmed, they worry about it. Whites who are made aware by researchers of just how precarious their children’s long-term political position will be are likely to favor more conservative policies. It’s almost as if citizens assume that the point of the United States is, as the Preamble to the Constitution states, to benefit “ourselves and our posterity.”
If whites are shown the extent of demographic change, they turn right-wing. Not only right-wing on immigration. They swing to the right on nearly every issue from defense to taxes. Perhaps Anonymous Conservative's r/K theory at work. Whatever the reason, there is one and only one red-pill that should be pushed above all others: demographic change. Mass immigration.

Democrats can't stop demographic change and they'll signal their support for the most extreme version of it. As if on cue, the New York Times hired an anti-white tech writer and decided it was time to die on a hill. It's as if the editors read the Ezra Klein article Sailer discusses and asked everyone at the table, "What's the worst possible thing we can do for our side?"

A politician is an ally if they vote in favor of red-pill legislation. Whether they talk a good game or not, once in office their main job is to vote. Yoder of Kansas was endorsed by Trump in July. A week later he stabbed him and all his supporters in the back. Clinton won Yoder's district and his immigration betrayal will doom him in November. Good riddance.

His loss may cost the GOP the House. Does the GOP deserve control of the House if they can't fund the wall over two years? When they fight Trump on nearly everything except when their plutocrat donors agree with the policy (tax cuts, defense spending)? Yoder could have rammed through a clean bill on immigration, but instead he loaded it up with Democrat open borders amendments.

Politicians and movements build brands. The winning brand is nationalism. There is nothing wrong with losing the coming election if it accomplishes brand building and recognition by removing the old guard. So many in Congress oppose Trump and nationalism, immigration reform is dead in the water. There is no wall. The decks must be cleared. It's almost guaranteed the GOP will lose seats in November. Hopefully, it will be the Yoders. Eyes on 2020.

If the GOP does lose in November, the media will say nationalism, racism and immigration cost the GOP in 2018. They also said the GOP needed more Hispanic votes in 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016 and again in 2018. Sailer was right then. He is still right now. The GOP wins by increasing its share of the white vote. Whites vote GOP when they learn of the demographic change that will turn their children and grandchildren into second-class citizens at best. Stopping that requires nationalist immigration reform.

This is a a two-front war. Advancing in Congress will be near impossible in 2018, but nationalists win if they expand control over the GOP and then nominate nationalists for the 2020 wave election. Stay on target.



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