5.22.2017

How Did Chinese Dismantle CIA Network

Was it hacking, or a mole? Whatever it was, good luck trying to find the noise in all this signaling.
House IT Aides Fear Suspects In Hill Breach Are Blackmailing Members With Their Own Data

A manager at a tech-services company that works with Democratic House offices said he approached congressional offices, offering their services at one-fourth the price of Awan and his Pakistani brothers, but the members declined. At the time, he couldn’t understand why his offers were rejected but now he suspects the Awans exerted some type of leverage over members.

“There’s no question about it: If I was accused of a tenth of what these guys are accused of, they’d take me out in handcuffs that same day, and I’d never work again,” he said.
Everyone thinks blackmail, but why not "that's racist!" like in Rotherham.

New Class War

The New Class War
Hobson’s lurid prediction of “yellow mercenary troops” being used to suppress Western workforces, like similar turn-of-the-century Yellow Peril prophecies, has not materialized. But his other predictions, translated into modern language, have come to pass. The claim of neoliberal ideologues that Western industrial workers who lose their jobs to offshoring in China and other low-wage countries would obtain new and better jobs in the “knowledge economy” was precisely a promise that, in the postindustrial West, most workers would share the intellectual property rents of the knowledge economy, rather like “independent gentlemen,” while Asian proles and peasants labored in factories. In the pages of the Economist and other propaganda organs of the managerial oligarchy, the claim that the lower prices of Chinese consumer goods outweigh the harm done to the Western working class by partial deindustrialization is routinely repeated, more than a century after Hobson’s prediction.

Hobson envisioned a dystopian future for a deindustrialized West ruled by a class of transnational managers and investors:

We have foreshadowed the possibility of an even larger alliance of Western States, a European federation of great Powers which, so far from forwarding the cause of world-civilisation, might introduce the gigantic peril of a Western parasitism, a group of advanced industrial nations, whose upper classes drew vast tribute from Asia and Africa, with which they supported great tame masses of retainers, no longer engaged in the staple industries of agriculture and manufacture, but kept in the performance of personal or minor industrial services under the control of a new financial aristocracy.

Hobson further warned: “The greater part of Western Europe might then assume the appearance and character already exhibited by tracts of country in the South of England, in the Riviera, and in the tourist-ridden or residential parts of Italy and Switzerland, little clusters of wealthy aristocrats drawing dividends and pensions from the Far East, with a somewhat larger group of professional retainers and tradesmen and a large body of personal servants.” The “little clusters” of rich rentiers and their professional retainers and menial servants bring to mind today’s increasingly stratified “global cities” like London, New York, and San Francisco, embedded in nation-states with large tracts of derelict, former industrial zones.

5.19.2017

The Overton Window in One Picture

Fox News is "right-wing" because it is actually"Fair and Balanced" in its news reporting.
Harvard Study Reveals Huge Extent of Anti-Trump Media Bias

5.18.2017

Unskilled Labor Destroys Productivity

Sailer finds another mistake in the mainstream financial press: Oops ...
Productivity in [U.S.] construction has contracted at a 1% annual rate since 1995, according to a study by McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of McKinsey & Co., due in part to reliance on unskilled workers and in part to government red tape.

Joel Shine, chief executive of builder Woodside Homes Inc., visited Kyoto, Japan, to see how firms there use automation in home construction. He thinks it would take at least a decade for the innovations to become mainstream in the U.S., in part because they would require building-code changes.
The most simple model of capitalism is a man on an island. He can catch enough fish and coconuts during the day to stay alive. However, if he takes time to make a spear, he could catch more fish. Since his spear making will take several hours, he works extra hard to catch more fish and coconuts one day, eating the surplus while he makes his tool. Now he can generate surplus everyday, and he starts drying fish to preserve them. Then he realizes with a net he could catch enough fish in one day to feed himself for a month, and then he can dry them for a day, and have the rest of the month free. And then he'd have time to build a nice shelter instead of living under a lean-to...

Create extra resources so you can build better tools, to create even more extra resources and build even better tools. Productivity goes up and wages follow. Constraining labor supply forces greater investment in capital (including intellectual), easing labor supply retards capital accumulation and capital investment.

Leave out debt and all the other complexities of a modern economy. At he most basic level, unskilled/low-skill immigration and the economic arguments in favor of it are retarded. The only time it might make sense is when there is a capital surplus, a dearth of labor AND capital investments in productivity will take time (wages would be high and rising rapidly). And then it would only make sense to use temporary guest workers who can accelerate productivity gains (such as rebuilding highways after the war in Germany), workers who are sent home after their term of service.

5.17.2017

The Cathedral Bubble Crystallizes

Urban Douthat goes full Cathedral, or is so gaslit it makes no difference.

The 25th Amendment Solution for Removing Trump
But a child also cannot really commit “high crimes and misdemeanors” in any usual meaning of the term. There will be more talk of impeachment now, more talk of a special prosecutor for the Russia business; well and good. But ultimately I do not believe that our president sufficiently understands the nature of the office that he holds, the nature of the legal constraints that are supposed to bind him, perhaps even the nature of normal human interactions, to be guilty of obstruction of justice in the Nixonian or even Clintonian sense of the phrase. I do not believe he is really capable of the behind-the-scenes conspiring that the darker Russia theories envision. And it is hard to betray an oath of office whose obligations you evince no sign of really understanding or respecting.

Which is not an argument for allowing him to occupy that office. It is an argument, instead, for using a constitutional mechanism more appropriate to this strange situation than impeachment: the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, which allows for the removal of the president if the vice president and a majority of the cabinet informs the Congress that he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” and (should the president contest his own removal) a two-thirds vote by Congress confirms the cabinet’s judgment.

The Trump situation is not exactly the sort that the amendment’s Cold War-era designers were envisioning. He has not endured an assassination attempt or suffered a stroke or fallen prey to Alzheimer’s. But his incapacity to really govern, to truly execute the serious duties that fall to him to carry out, is nevertheless testified to daily — not by his enemies or external critics, but by precisely the men and women whom the Constitution asks to stand in judgment on him, the men and women who serve around him in the White House and the cabinet.

Read the things that these people, members of his inner circle, his personally selected appointees, say daily through anonymous quotations to the press. (And I assure you they say worse off the record.) They have no respect for him, indeed they seem to palpitate with contempt for him, and to regard their mission as equivalent to being stewards for a syphilitic emperor.

It is not squishy New York Times conservatives who regard the president as a child, an intellectual void, a hopeless case, a threat to national security; it is people who are self-selected loyalists, who supported him in the campaign, who daily go to work for him. And all this, in the fourth month of his administration.

Rural VDH wants Severed Heads
Donald ‘You’re Fired’ Trump

Into this matrix barged politically incorrect and often mercurial Donald Trump, whose past televised celebrity was largely a result of hosting a reality show in which he ostentatiously fired poor performers.
Trump’s misdemeanor was not that he fired someone who deserved to be fired, but that he did so as if he were still the host of The Apprentice rather than the president of the United States.

Yet the real felony remains the exemptions given to high officials such as Lerner, Napolitano, and Rice who have wreaked havoc because they assume they will never be fired. Even a badly conducted severing of a culpable government head is always preferable to an adroit exemption from any consequences. The one is rare and salutary, the other is commonplace and insidious.

Cry not for the firing of James Comey, but for the thousands of Americans who suffer from these incompetent and haughty officials who are never held accountable.

Benedict XVI Speaks

Benedict XVI SPEAKS: “With Cardinal Sarah, a master of silence and of interior prayer, the liturgy is in good hands.

5.16.2017

Progressives Are Cargo Cultists

The women missing from the silver screen and the technology used to find them
When they were 8 and 10, Kimberly and Rebecca Yeung had to choose who to send to space. The spacecraft the two constructed in their garage only had a payload big enough for one action figure. The sisters decided on Rey, the heroine of the movie Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

With Rey in the captain’s seat, the Yeung sisters’ spaceship lifted off. It was powered by a helium-filled balloon and was outfitted with solar panels, GPS, video cameras, and sensors to capture data and relay it back to Earth in real time. Their hope: reach the stratosphere at roughly 40,000 feet. Instead they soared even higher, to 101,000 ft. They had reached beyond their dreams, to the very edge of space.

Rey may be a fictional character, but to Rebecca and Kimberly she is a very real role model. “We know that sometimes people have said that things like technology and science were only for boys,” Kimberly says. “But knowing that there are people who are role models for us makes us feel good about our interests and what we like to do.”
This is a weak form of the cargo cult, that if you put images of people doing things on the screen, then people will be willing and able to do them.
The characters we see on-screen play a significant part in determining the roles we occupy off-screen. In a recent study, only 15% of K-12 students remember seeing women performing computer science tasks "most of the time" in film or TV. This is reflected in real life where women make up only 17% of computer science majors – a steady decline from a peak at 37% in 1984. There are many reasons for this decline, but stronger female representation in programming, coding, and engineering roles on the big screen can help everyone envision women filling those roles in real life. This is an issue Google's Computer Science in Media team has been focused on for years, working with creators and producers to improve the portrayal of these fields in TV and movies.
We know the reason for the decline: feminism and wealth. The greater the wealth, the greater the choices available to women, and the more they gravitate to "feminine" jobs.

Exit questions:

If you raise your daughter without television or movies, would she be more or less likely to take up computer science?
Two daughters are raised by a single parent, one by the mother, the other by the father. Which one is more likely to study computer science?

What Did Democrats Know, And When Did They Know It?

Family of slain DNC staffer Seth Rich blasts detective over report of WikiLeaks link
Murdered DNC Staffer Seth Rich Shared 44,053 Democrat Emails With WikiLeaks: Report
"My investigation up to this point shows there was some degree of email exchange between Seth Rich and WikiLeaks," Wheeler told Fox News. "I do believe that the answers to who murdered Seth Rich sits on his computer on a shelf at the DC police or FBI headquarters."

“My investigation shows someone within the D.C. government, Democratic National Committee or Clinton team is blocking the murder investigation from going forward,” Wheeler told Fox News. “That is unfortunate. Seth Rich’s murder is unsolved as a result of that.”
Using Cathedral standards of evidence:

Anyone pushing the Russia Narrative could potentially be part of a vast left-wing conspiracy covering up the murder of Seth Rich. The murder was probably ordered by a high level official in the Obama White House or the Hillary Clinton campaign. We know Obama said, "I'm really good at killing people." We know a lot of Clinton associates turn up dead. This is stronger evidence than Trump saying something nice about Putin.

We need a special prosecutor to investigate every high level official who pushed the Russia Narrative because we don't know who is at the center of the conspiracy. Also for prominent journalists driving the case. WaPo has been particularly aggressive. Jeff Bezos should be investigated too. We need to unmask all of them in NSA surveillance and look into all their communications over the past year. It's the only way we can be sure what happened.

What are the odds 200 members of Congress will be put in prison by 2019? If you are in the Cathedral, you must think those odds are 80% or more.

Will Donald Trump be president at year-end 2018?. Current price for yes is 63 cents, a 59% return if Trump is still in office at the end of 2018.

5.15.2017

Even Progressive Narratives on TV Shows Are Failing

Emily Nussbaum called this the problem of the "Bad Fan." There will always be some viewers, she wrote, who are "watching [the show] wrong." Nor is this new; Nussbaum pointed out that "there was always a subset of Sopranos fans that just wanted better and bloodier whackings — and there's a subset of Breaking Bad fans that will always want Walt to wear that hot black hat."
The more the Narrative deviates from reality, the more "bad fans" will multiply.

Show creator Vince Gilligan:
[W]ith the risk of painting with too broad a brush, I think the people who have these issues with the wives being too bitchy on Breaking Bad are misogynists, plain and simple. I like Skyler a little less now that she's succumbed to Walt's machinations, but in the early days she was the voice of morality on the show. She was the one telling him, "You can't cook crystal meth." She's got a tough job being married to this asshole. And this, by the way, is why I should avoid the internet at all costs. People are griping about Skyler White being too much of a killjoy to her meth-cooking, murdering husband? She's telling him not to be a murderer and a guy who cooks drugs for kids. How could you have a problem with that?
Skyler's role in the show is wife and mother, but she rarely came across as the innocent victim of her husband's crimes. Contrast her with Lorraine Bracco's Karen in Goodfellas.
The inverse truth is that when you've made the wife the antagonist and stripped her of the thrills of villainy — when you've made her not just the boring wife, but also the show's moral center? Well, that there's a recipe for massive annoyance.
There is no center in a morally relativistic world.
You know who doesn't have an annoying sister? Or a pregnant belly? Or a baby? Or any vulnerability — or expectations of the antiheroic protagonist? Kim Wexler.

Better Call Saul's Kim is put together. She's sexy. Whereas Skyler was homebound a lot of the time, a lumpen shadow haunting the White abode, Kim barely has a home at all; she showers at the gym. Skyler starts the series glumping around in robes and hideous beauty masks. Kim wakes up looking amazing in a T-shirt.
Kim is liked because she is an innocent woman, a good woman who loves Jimmy. Even if they give her a crooked bitch backstory, she'll probably still be liked by fans as long as she doesn't stab Jimmy in the back.

5.14.2017

Migrant Crisis Red Pills China

Outside In copies the main thrust of a worried progressive piece on the rise of "white left" as a slur in China. 白左

This is the explanation:
However, Chinese netizens’ fierce attacks against the ‘white left’ seem curiously devoid of experiential motivation, since all these problems that conservatives in the west are concerned about – immigration, multiculturalism, minority rights, and affirmative actions – are largely unknown to Chinese society.

I don't buy the affirmative action argument because Chinese (and other high-achieving Asians) in America dislike it, but it doesn't turn them right-wing.

Anti-Muslim policies of the government probably moved them in a reactionary direction. Anti-Muslim sentiment is on the rise in China. We found that the Internet fuels — and fights — this.

I suspect the migrant crisis was the red pill for China. Everything else was in play long ago, but nothing sparked a reaction like the one currently forming.

Once China realizes this can be useful in geopolitics, as it was for Russia, we'll be getting gold pandas to stack next to our commemorative Putin gold coins.

Consider the term "Manchurian blogger" officially coined.

5.10.2017

Help Wanted at TWiR

Nick B Steves is looking for volunteers to help write This Week in Reaction:
Calling all NEETs…
This whole process takes about 20 hours per week. It’s 20 hours I don’t actually… ya know… have. And that’s why I’m asking for your help, dear NEET or otherwise industrious person who wishes to have a hand in the creation of this “social glue” of The Reactosphere®

I propose to divide the work up into beats. There are several beats that’d I’d like to hold onto for strategic reasons, but there are several I would be happy to farm out to an industrious minion or two or three or four. Beats are somewhat negotiable, but they need to be helpful… to me. Following only your favorite blogger is probably not going to be helpful… unless that blogger happens to be Porter, Evolutionist X, SoBL, Jim, or Quas Lacrimas, who already have their own delineated subsections within the TWiR… in which case you may have just found yerself a beat!

Barring those, the two most critical beats I need help on are the “Orthosphere Beat” and the “Arts & Letters Beat”. Each of these include a large number of sites the output of which and the applicability of which varies from week to week.

Computers Are Racist

More proof, as if we needed any, that "racist!" is a catch-all term for "bad."
A Chinese professor has expressed surprise after a study he co-authored that said machines could be programmed to tell if a person was a criminal was slammed by Google researchers as “scientific racism”.

In the paper, submitted last November to Cornell University Library’s arXiv site, an online repository of moderated scientific papers, Wu and his student Zhang Xi wrote that they found machines could use data to make reliable inferences about whether someone was a criminal. The study was based on an analysis of almost 2,000 Chinese government ID photos of criminals and non-criminals.

“Given the race, gender and age, the faces of law-abiding members of the public have a greater degree of resemblance compared with the faces of criminals,” the pair wrote, noting that criminals tended to have eyes that were closer together.
Studying Chinese faces is now racist in China, because racist.
Professor claims AI can spot criminals by looking at photos 90 percent of the time
In the first paper, Wu and his student Zhang Xi explained they used computer vision and machine learning to see if a computer could distinguish criminals from non-criminals by analyzing the faces of 1,856 people.

Wu and his team collected ID card photos that satisfied the following criteria - Chinese, male, between the ages of 18 and 55, no facial hair, no facial scars or other markings.

The ID photos of the 1,126 non-criminals of men were from a wide range of professions and social status; and the 730 ID photos of criminals came from those published by public security bureaus in different provinces in China.

The computer found that the angle from the nose tip to the corners of the mouth was on average smaller for criminals than for non-criminals. Also, the upper lip curvature was on average larger of criminals than of non-criminals.

Using these variables to judge photos, the AI was able to distinguish criminals and non-criminals in the data set with almost 90 percent accuracy.
The researchers got to 90% with faces alone.

Now watch this video of a "mentalist"

If he really has intuition and isn't doing magic tricks or suggestion, then he is picking up subtle signals. Software can process this data today. The bottleneck is the amount of data required. Watching people for all sorts of subtle tells requires constant video feeds. We're starting to get data on criminals: police are wearing body cams and their interactions with suspects will be thoroughly investigated. If no one in the West uses the data, some researched in China will.

5.08.2017

Le Pen Lost, Big Deal

Le Pen lost because European politics is different from Anglo politics. If you want to have a major revolution via the ballot box in America (completely replacing the existing politicians), you need 4 years. You have to win the Presidency and the majority of open Senate seats, and then win the majority of Senate seats again in the off year election, and then win the trifecta (Presidency, House and Senate) in year four. You have to win a majority in the majority of 435 legislative districts and 50 states. Then there's the Supreme Court which you'll have to pack or impeach and replace. FDR tried court packing and failed. Theoretically, in a wild year an upstart third party could accomplish this with perhaps 35% of the vote, but it would still need 4 years to consolidate power.

A "first past the post" election system generates moderate government that is difficult to radically alter. For Brexit, UKIP forced the Tories into holding a referendum. They didn't overtake and replace the Tories, they nudged the Overton Window and the political center to the right. UKIP is unable to force a hard Brexit and is stuck with a Tory negotiator. Trump won in the crowded GOP primary field, but is now constrained because 80% of his own party doesn't like him. His nominal allies are people such as Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, and they are not "his guys." They were his opponents in the primaries (and Cruz didn't bend the knee until a couple months later). Trump cannot even enforce immigration law because the courts are against him. Trump didn't recruit candidates two years ahead of his run. If he wants to have all his people in power, he has to wait 6 years until 2022. There's no sign he plans on recruiting candidates though.

By contrast, in some European parliamentary systems the party with the largest vote total gets a bonus designed to help it achieve a governing majority. The European system rewards "extremists" through proportional representation. "Extreme" parties are common and they consistently win votes. Additionally, in many countries today there is only one nationalist party and other parties ally against it. To change politics in Europe requires obtaining a plurality of votes and the public won't be allowed to make a change until it goes all in.

Consider France. Macron beat Melechon 23.7% to 19.5%. If 2.2% of voters switch, less than 10% of Macron's support, it's chaos for financial markets and trouble for the euro and EU. Had the data dump on Macron come one month earlier, it might have sunk him in the first round. Le Pen was scorched in round two because France isn't ready for that big a change yet, but it's system almost gave it to the people anyway.

Change will be swift and radical when it comes to Europe.

5.05.2017

Average Whites Are Superstar Americans

The worst aspect of collapse probably won't be the collapse itself. Most likely the decline will be slow and steady, punctuated by events such as rapid currency devaluation and perhaps a military loss. Instead, the worst thing will be the total complacency of everyone around you. They will view the collapse as the new normal.

Case in point, Vermont standardized test scores.
Vermont is smack dab in the middle of American white educational achievement, but because it is a mostly white state, it lands at number 11 nationally.

Anything and everything that appeals to a mass audience, be it a standardized test or the best selling items at Wal-Mart and Amazon, will be corrupted by changing demographics.

5.03.2017

Hunting For Growth

Convergence killing NASCAR
Many NASCAR fans warned of this when NASCAR decided to stop focusing on its core audience in order to reach out to the new fans who, as many predicted, proved to be almost entirely imaginary. And if you think NASCAR's management is going to learn from their catastrophic failure, then you really don't understand how SJW convergence works.
Convergence happens when you appeal to a mass market. Everyone converges on the same target audience and thus converges on the same type of product/programming.

Hunting for growth wasn't a big issue 30+ years ago because there was still organic population growth. Now the population is holding steady and certain demographic groups, such as whites, are shrinking as a percentage of the population. Let's say you're Nascar or the NHL, you pull out a demographic chart and see that your market will only grow at 1-2% per year if you can hold your share of the market. But there's a much bigger pie if you can appeal to non-whites.

The Sailer Strategy is a good one for a high margin business. If the NHL decides it's the sport for upper middle income whites, they would drive up their share of white sports fans as other leagues such as the NBA turn them off.

5.01.2017

How to Destroy the Alt-Right

Give it what it wants.
“As the white population becomes a smaller majority and ultimately a minority, there is going to be more white panic. It’s not super-common as a natural democratic process. How will people deal with that? Whites would be a power majority in economic and politics, which creates a dangerous-imbalance power dynamic, like the dangerous sectarian resentments seen in some Middle Eastern conflicts. That’s why I’m not super-optimistic about this, unless we can allow some room for a legitimate expression of white identity. White self-interest that doesn’t discriminate against others, that isn’t racist toward minority groups. A stark understanding of “You’re a racist or non-racist,” is not a good idea and not sustainable.”—Shadi Hamid, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of Islamic Exceptionalism
Reverse demographic changes and ease up on anti-white rhetoric, and support for the Alt-Right would weaken considerably. This is impossible under current conditions, because all men literally created equal. Plus, the power imbalance is rising as the Third World hordes lower average income, exacerbating the impact of automation, but the upper classes remain heavily white. This creates more racial tensions with identity politics even if the left cools it with the anti-white remarks. If the left instead goes into diversity overdrive (as the trend indicates), it expands the pool of elite whites denied power, while simultaneously delegitimizing and weakening elite status and radicalizing the white lower classes. A white counter-elite representing dispossessed whites will rise. Where the left gets it very wrong is in thinking this will be based on white left-right politics, instead of racial and ethnic identity politics. Ideological tension is weakening and identity is replacing it.

Finally, if the left did acquiesce to a white identity, there's no reason why it wouldn't logically dominate the country and eventually reassert control. Colonization in most of the world ended because whites stopped colonizing countries, not because whites were defeated. Creating the conditions of colonization at home means the whites will never quit.

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