Friday, June 23, 2017

Diversity Destroys High Trust

Discussion starts at 45 minutes.


When you are in a high trust society and you are a high trust person, you behave when no one is watching. Honorable societies allow their people greater liberty because those who violate the rules are rare exceptions and severely punished. The greater the level of freedom in a society, the greater the punishment for losing honor. You know you are in a high trust society if people leave personal property unlocked, or have free access to public property. Tings like a lost and found box out in the open. To Western Europeans this is normal, if you find something you put it in the box. If your friend takes something from the box, you reprimand them. "You can't do that!" I'm not sure all white ethnicities even adhere to this, but there are many who think, "White people are stupid! Leaving this out in the open!" And the Western response is to hide the box, then put a lock on it. And to start thinking, if everyone is taking from the box, maybe I should too.

Instead of thinking, these people who take from the box should be removed from our society.

Keeping your honor among thieves is difficult.

If you are high trust, demand high trust policies. Force authorities into passing comically bad policies that collapse overnight or force them to address diversity. Or force them to create special carve outs. White privilege is the just reward for honorable behavior.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

5 Months In: What Has Trump Done?

While we're focused on big ticket items such as tax reform and trade deals, the reality is Trump has done some very good things with executive orders. Here's one.

Dakota Access Pipeline Ready to Open for Business
A common expectation among production companies and investment bank analysts appears to be a boost to gross margins in a range of $1 to $3 a barrel as transportation costs drop and North Dakota prices rise because of greater market access in much of the Midwest and South. But not necessarily an immediate boost.

If an increase of $2 a barrel is a reasonable estimate, it would mean a shipper moving 50,000 barrels a day would get an additional $36.5 million a year.
Some estimates go higher:
Railroads can be expected to lose business to the pipeline. Some of the crude has been going east by rail on the BNSF railway as far as Chicago and then by CSX railway from Chicago to Albany, N.Y., after which the oil can be taken south to New Jersey by rail or barge for delivery to refineries along the Delaware River.

Dakota Access should allow for a $3 to $8 decrease in transportation costs per barrel, said Tessa Sandstrom, spokeswoman for the North Dakota Petroleum Council. Rail transportation is not expected to dry up, however.

“Rail is still helpful because it goes to premium eastern markets where pipe doesn’t,” Chandra said. “So it’s not just transport cost but also oil sale price that matters,” he said, implying there is a price premium for oil reaching Delaware River refineries.
Many shale oil producers are on the line between profit and loss with West Texas Intermediate crude oil selling for $43 a barrel. A difference of $2 or $3 doesn't sound like a lot, but it is huge in the current market.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Solution to Low Fertility: More Babies

Nick Land writing at Jacobite: MODERNITY’S FERTILITY PROBLEM
Politics, by prophetic etymology, is about cities. The inevitability of an emergent ‘Alt-Right’ in the mass politics of advanced modern societies is already fully predictable from a minimal understanding of how cities work. It is simple delusion to imagine that mere contingency rules here, perhaps under the guidance of particular political personalities. Rather, the urban metabolism – essentially – at a certain phase of its development, generates circumstances overwhelmingly conducive to the eruption of popular ethno-politics. Cities are demographic parasites. They trend intrinsically to a dynamic that – beyond a comparatively definite threshold – cannot fail to be perceived as a systematic policy of ethnic replacement.

There is still much hope of coaxing toothpaste back into its tubes. In other words, there is a massive failure to appreciate the profundity and magnitude of the processes underlying the current global crisis. For instance, the incendiary language of migration-driven ‘genocide’ is not going away. It is bound, on the contrary, to spread, and intensify. The re-emergence of the race topic, and all of its associates, is deeply baked into the modernist cake. Comparative modernity is automatically racialized once global metabolism lends differential (urban/rural) fertility its ethnic specificity. What is unfolding, among other things, is the racial disaggregation of the ‘population bomb,’ with drastic inevitability. This is not a product of intellectuals, but of the modern process inherently, and all attempts by intellectuals to obstruct its cultural condensation are hubristically misconceived. “Who, actually, is having kids?” It is a species of insanity to think this question can be strangled in the crib.

So, what’s the answer? Does the Alt-Right have one? If so, there’s been no sign of it yet. “Burn the cities to the ground” has been floated on Twitter, and no doubt elsewhere, but it doesn’t seem obviously practical. That solution has a rich – and especially East Asian – communist pedigree, which the Alt-Right will probably rediscover at some point. It didn’t work out in the 1970s, and would be unlikely to perform any more convincingly today.
There are two ways to deal with a problem: cause and symptom. When you can't find the cause, or can't fix it, you deal with the symptoms. You don't worry about theory, you don't sit around and think, you do. You solve today's problem.

The answer to the lack of fertility is really simple for most of the dissident Right: be fertile. Go forth and multiply.

Also, people sometimes ask about how to believe in God if they feel some religious impulse, but not enough. The answer is to pray to God, thank Him, and go to church. Bring God into your life and see what happens.

I'm conflicted on the idea that low fertility is a problem. Japan is not at risk of being not Japanese. The destruction of high IQ people seems like a problem, but if the world moves towards something like neo-feudalism, it only needs a small number of fecund elites.

I often come back to the idea of modernity as a filter. Nature forced people to behave a certain way because violating God's laws took you out of the gene pool. Modernity is the sudden lifting of most of these restraints. God's rules must not apply anymore since you can violate them at will and live a happy, healthy life. Nature isn't standing over your shoulder anymore and Hell is an abstract concept. As things stand today, those who internalize God's laws are still destined to inherit the Earth. Maybe artificial wombs, transhumanism and other advancements will solve the problem of low fertility in modernity's favor. That might be a battle for another day. For now, we know how to solve the problem: more babies.

Matthew 6:34
Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.

NYTimes Seen Kyle Again: Grenfell Fire

Would a White British Community Have Burned in Grenfell Tower?
The residents of the Lancaster West Estate, the development that envelops the Grenfell Tower, are typical of the modern British metropolitan working class. While there still exists a widespread nostalgia among some quarters for a beleaguered white working class, the truth is different. Poverty rates are lowest among the white population — at about 20 percent — while 50 percent of people of African descent live in poverty. Overall, two-fifths of ethnic minorities live in a household earning below average income.

Indeed, Britain’s racial politics are the key to understanding the Grenfell Tower fire. It’s difficult to imagine this disaster — caused by a huge dereliction of duty and refusal to listen to residents’ concerns — befalling a community of white Britons.
Of course it veers into your typical progressive screed from there, but it's amazing how much the progressive left is becoming a mirror of the racialists on the Alt-Right, to the point where you can pluck out whole paragraphs and drop them into an Alt-Right essay.

Cucks Go K

Notorious Never Trumper Erick Erickson:

Let’s Consider Secession
At the same time, the left would have us believe that there is more violence on the right where history itself shows that is not true. From Nazism to Communism to progressivism itself, there has been more butchery from leftwing ideologies throughout human history than from the right — and yes despite popular historic revisionism, Nazism is from the left and had an American progressive fan club that included Margaret Sanger, patron saint of killing kids. On college campuses, conservatives are chased away by mobs and the left excuses it. After all, they say, the right deserved it. Steve Scalise deserved it. The Christian bigot needs to bake the cake, but the performer who does not want to perform for President Trump is a saint.

There is only a one way street and the crowd that demands tolerance only wants tolerance for themselves. All others must be silenced.

The political left is becoming the American ISIS.

But let’s not excuse the right. Increasingly, there are those on the right who think they have to behave exactly as the left to give them a dose of their own medicine. They will storm the stage and disrupt the play. They will form an angry mob to chase away liberals. It is only a matter of time before some nut on the right decides to seek vengeance for Republican congressmen.
I expect no less from a moderate! But the tone changes:
In our present atmosphere there is no escape from the American ISIS that is the political left. Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant and then it seeks to silence good. Evil is now dominant — but the partisan line is blurred.

The only escape is dissolution. We should part ways if we cannot have federalism. We should start talking about secession. If both sides have decided that every hill is a hill to die on and control of Washington means reward for their friends and punishment of their enemies, we need to end Washington. The way to do that is end the union.

I am no longer an optimist about the future of this country. This past week has shown there is no incentive for the better angels of ourselves to rise. Both sides are out for blood. The only way to calm the situation is for us to part ways. Frankly, and historically, the only thing at this point that is going to save us from ourselves is either breaking apart our union or a major war not of our choosing that forces us to unite. I suspect the latter is coming, but we should start talking about the former if we are not going to live and let live within the rubric of federalism.
I believe this is where Anonymous Conservative comes in to explain people's amygdalas are getting blasted. As people turn K, they lower their time preference and see the future conflict more clearly. Things have always been going badly, but now they can see the endgame. They can see there will be violence imposed on them, or the sitution so intolerable that they themselves will take up arms. The rational thing to do is exit early.

Seen at Outsideness.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Fake Capital Goes to Capital Heaven

Mark Hanson: Housing Bubble 2.0 - The End Is Nigh?
I know I sound like a raving Marxist to be saying this, that the Federal Reserve system and all its brethren systems were established specifically to serve the interests of Capital in its age-old battle with Labor. But yeah, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Propping up financial markets? That’s a nice-to-have. Preserving Capital as the apex predator in our social ecosystem? There’s your must-have.
If a bunch of capital has to be wiped out in the process, so be it. If you don't like the current occupant of the White House, it's a feature not a bug.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

The NYTimes Seen Kyle

Bret Stephens in NYT: Deport Americans to Make Room for Superior Immigrants
In the matter of immigration, mark this conservative columnist down as strongly pro-deportation. The United States has too many people who don’t work hard, don’t believe in God, don’t contribute much to society and don’t appreciate the greatness of the American system.

They need to return whence they came.

I speak of Americans whose families have been in this country for a few generations. Complacent, entitled and often shockingly ignorant on basic points of American law and history, they are the stagnant pool in which our national prospects risk drowning.

On point after point, America’s nonimmigrants are failing our country. Crime? A study by the Cato Institute notes that nonimmigrants are incarcerated at nearly twice the rate of illegal immigrants, and at more than three times the rate of legal ones.
As Steve Sailer says: "Okay, so you want to deport African Americans. Got it."

Thanks Bret, for broaching the subject of mass deportation and giving us an ideological excuse for banishing non-Christians, communists, socialists and the majority of NAMs. For a shortcut grab the Democrat Party's voter registration list and deport away!

Friday, June 16, 2017

The Empty Lots Are Rotting, Turning Into Fields

The advocates for cheap labor never miss an opportunity to claim they need more cheap labor.
Home builders cut back for third straight month
Yet builders increasingly complain they cannot find enough good construction workers to get the job done and that could be constricting them. Consider the recent slide in building permits. They fell 4.9% in May to an annual rate of 1.17 million, the lowest level in 13 months.

Permits are also below year-ago levels,

In May, the biggest drop-off occurred in the South and Midwest. Construction rose slightly in the West and was flat in the Northeast.

For years the housing market has experienced a mini-renaissance of sorts as a steadily growing economy, rising employment and ultra-low interest rates enabled home people to buy homes.

The outlook might not be as favorable now, though. Aside from widespread labor shortages, prices for wood and other raw materials have also risen. And the Federal Reserve has embarked on a series of increases in a key U.S. interest rate that helps determine the cost of borrowing, a potential brake on future sales.
Here is construction employment through April and residential building construction employment through May. There is a leveling off in employment which would be consistent with a leveling off of growth, not a decline in growth. If home construction is declining, there's no evidence it is caused by a labor shortage.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Republican Congressmen Shot

Two Republican Congressmen shot, along with security officers, after gunman opens fire at a Congressional baseball practice.

The cycle theories of history, ranging from the Generations Theory of Strauss & Howe, to Peter Turchin's model of elite overproduction and various social measures (such as level of immigration, wealth disparity), to mood theories such as Socionomics, all point to a crisis period. Most of the theories also predict a more significant crisis. The Generations models maps at least to the 1930s. The Turchin model maps to periods of violence such as the anarchist wave and the 1960s, but also the Civil War. If you believe some of the bolder Socionomics forecasts, this cycle maps to the 1700s, the end of the 1784-2000 expansion wave.

The cycle theories predictive ability is looking good.

Disney Allowing, Google Pimping Sick Twisted Videos to Children on YouTube

Violent, gory, sadistic, perverted and disturbing videos featuring superheroes and popular Disney characters are proliferating on YouTube and going into children's content feeds. People have been complaining about these videos for almost a year. For some reason, these videos aren't taken down, but proliferate, while perfectly reasonable videos that express a right-wing viewpoint are immediately flagged and pulled. Google has no defense. Additionally, Google is very quick to protect copyrights. Disney obviously is doing nothing to stop these videos.

The innocent explanation is these videos are being click farmed in India or Pakista. Many of the viewers may be are overseas because there's no talking in the videos. It still doesn't explain the nature of the content. The possible explanations only get worse from there.

Discussion starts at 32 minutes on TDS.

STOP IMMEDIATELY IF YOUR CHILD WATCHING THESE WEIRD SUPER HERO VIDEOS ON YOUTUBE
The disturbing YouTube videos that are tricking children
What's up with the weird Spiderman videos ?? New get rich quick scheme on YouTube ?

Monday, June 12, 2017

Baizuo Being Baizuo

A series of videos on hard hitting topics such as microaggressions, white privilege, and white fragility.

Under Our Skin

Why You Need a Narrative

Comey fallout weighs on the GOP
But one senior GOP aide said that lawmakers aren’t holding out much hope of changing Trump’s Twitter habit, despite Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) publicly expressed hopes that there be “less drama” from the White House.

The aide quipped that getting Trump to tweet less is like “tilting at windmills.”

Republican lawmakers are under increasing pressure as, four months into Trump’s first term, they cannot point to any major accomplishments besides conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch's confirmation to the Supreme Court. Instead, Trump’s political problems have distracted from the agenda.

Republicans have publicly downplayed Comey’s testimony, but privately they’re nervous that they’re burning through the legislative calendar while remaining deadlocked over healthcare reform. Meanwhile, unfinished work on tax reform, infrastructure investment and the budget piles up behind it.

The biggest frustration for many Republican lawmakers is that Trump has helped keep the controversy in the headlines by picking fights with the media on Twitter instead of keeping the focus on his own agenda or simply staying quiet at key moments.
Republicans buy into the Cathedral's Narrative. They are the Outer Party for a reason. Back in the 1980s, liberals made fun of Reagan for reading Human Events.

Reagan’s Newspaper
For more than 40 years, Ronald Reagan’s favorite newspaper was HUMAN EVENTS, which he said “helped me stop being a liberal Democrat.”

When he discovered White House aides were blocking its delivery, President Reagan arranged for multiple copies to be sent to the White House residence every weekend. He made clear HUMAN EVENTS’ importance to him by marking and clipping articles and passing them along to his assistants.

Reagan relied on HUMAN EVENTS, he explained, for its “aggressive reporting, superb analysis and one of the finest collections of conservative columnists.” He routinely sought its guidance on critical issues like taxes and strategic defense.
Unlike Reagan, Trump watches "the shows." The media can pull him into a ridiculous Russia story, and the Outer Party go along with the MSM narrative. This Russia story must be serious, it's in the WaPo and NYTimes!

We remember what liberals said and what they really think about Ronald Reagan
Pat Buchanan, who served as President Reagan’s communications director, put it this way: (H/T Human Events):

Frankly, Reagan was more concerned about what you guys said at HUMAN EVENTS and what they said in the Washington Times, than what they said in the New York Times.
An alternative Narrative exists, many in fact, but the GOP and Trump are still following the Cathedral's lead on too many issues.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Stay Redpilled on Economy

Economy emerges as bright spot for Trump

U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

One data point doesn't make a recession. The economy sucks because we're in a depression. Lots of data looks as if it could roll over into recession, but that has happened several times over past 8 years. Each time, at least one central bank stepped in with a massive intervention. The last was China in 2016.

The Narrative of a good economy also doesn't help Trump. His economic agenda will run up the deficit and it won't stop because the economy is in a depression. Kansas Republicans voted to raise taxes this week after revenue growth didn't increase.

Conservatism is dead.
We are near the peak of the Laffer Curve: cutting taxes reduces revenues permanently.
Even if there's some growth, entitlements and tax-eating immigrants are driving up costs faster than revenues.
Tax reform will require shifting the tax burden from producers to consumers.
Paul Ryan's BAT is a move in the right direction.

The global monetary system is broken.
Economic reforms won't accomplish much until global monetary reform is addressed.
Without reform, conditions can only be improved at the margins: tax reform, better trade deals, remove tax-eating illegal aliens and refugees.

The more Trump and Republicans think the economy is good, the more likely they will be tossed into the political woodchipper.

Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past 8 years. Blips of hope emerged before to be be subsumed by the overwhelming force of depression.

Who Lost Utica?

“My hometown (Utica) is gone”

Friday, June 09, 2017

Hillary Clinton Guilty of Noticing

HRC in trouble for noticing things. Not even one step removed noticing of statistical data, merely noticing the race of the people around her.

HRC Noticed Things

History of Philosophy


Seen at: Anti-Puritan

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Pike in the Carp Pond

Be Thankful for the Pikes in Your Carp Pond
“The pike is a predator of the carp,” he said. “So, when the pike is around, the carp feel threatened and keep active."
Applied to Roman history:
Do you remember what happened to the Roman Empire? Around 147 BC, the Roman Empire was large and powerful. During the Third Punic War, the Romans were close to victory and they considered what to do with the city of Carthage. Two of the Senators – Cato and Nasica – argued about this. Cato pushed for the destruction of Carthage, while Nasica preferred to let it stand.

Why?

Because he knew that if Carthage was destroyed, Rome would no longer have a mortal enemy and the Roman people would become complacent. They become weak and useless, and their manly virtues and courage would fade away.

That began the fall of the Roman Empire.

Carthage was the pike; Rome was the carp.
Islam is the pike in the Western carp pond.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

South Korea is Leaving

South Korean president calls for THAAD deployment to be suspended
The further deployment of a controversial U.S. anti-missile battery should be suspended pending an environmental impact assessment that could take more than a year, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s office said Wednesday.

Concerns about the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system are a key issue threatening to put the new South Korean administration at odds with its longstanding U.S. ally.
China punished South Korea economically after the prior administration approved THAAD deployment.

10% of South Korea's economy is exports to China. And growing. The U.S. is about half of that.

South Korea isn't going to be an American ally in the long-term. It will fall into China's orbit. The question is how much blood and treasure will the U.S. waste to delay the inevitable.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Jewish Privilege

David Brooks tell us about what Jews do with their money. After schools and medical research, a lot is given to other Jews.

Giving Away Your Billion
Recently I’ve been reading the Giving Pledge letters. These are the letters that rich people write when they join Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge campaign. They take the pledge, promising to give away most of their wealth during their lifetime, and then they write letters describing their giving philosophy.

...Most of the letter writers started poor or middle class. They don’t believe in family dynasties and sometimes argue that they would ruin their kids’ lives if they left them a mountain of money. Schools and universities are the most common recipients of their generosity, followed by medical research and Jewish cultural institutions. A ridiculously disproportionate percentage of the Giving Pledge philanthropists are Jewish.
Hmm, shouldn't they be giving money to African-American cultural centers? I bet rural Alabama could sure use the money.

We Are In a Depression

Factory orders are below the 2007 peak. Although manufacturing jobs disappear as the sector turns into agriculture (making stuff like electronics components is like farming now, anyone can build a factory with enough capital, just as anyone can plant wheat with enough land), manufacturing output rose steadily over time. The U.S. is no longer making more stuff, and made less stuff in 2016 than it made in 2007. This is not from outsourcing, if anything the trend to outsourcing started reversing due to high oil prices and then cheaper U.S. energy.
The 12-year expected return for the S&P 500 Index is below its dividend yield. Stocks are expected to be lower in 2029 than they are today.
Finally, based on labor force, productivity and investment trends, GDP growth is projected to be less than 1% per year for the next decade.

Doing the things the United States needs to do (reducing immigration, balancing trade) will make the economy worse, not better, in terms of nominal GDP. Things will improve for the average worker as wages rise, but corporate profits will fall, stocks will decline and over-leveraged companies betting on faster GDP growth will go bust.

Monday, June 05, 2017

New Crowdfunded Political Party

Initially the party serves to crowdfund the Alt-Right, but 10% of funds go to the Party for political activities.

Counter.Fund
What is Counter.Fund?

Counter.Fund is a crowdfunding platform built by and for the wider Alt-Right counter-culture.

10% of all the funding collected will be allocated to a party fund, and a parliamentary House of Lords (House of Shitlords?) comprised of the top fundraisers will convene regularly to spend that money on political action for the benefit of the movement. Counter.Fund is an experiment in catalyzing collective action across the wider Alt-Right.

Counter.Fund is ideological in its explicit dedication against Marxist political correctness and the globalist progressive Left.
Counter.Fund is built on a crowdfunding platform that allows recurring and one-time payments to registered Influencers via credit card, bitcoin, and PayPal.
Counter.Fund is self-governed because it is controlled by a House of Lords of the top Influencers who raise money on the site.
Counter.Fund is a political party because the House of Lords spends 10% of all the money raised on whatever it decides are the collective goals of the party.

Mission

Counter.Fund's mission is to create strong incentives and fertile conditions for collectivized political action amongst the atomized counter-culture right. The movement's distributed nature is an advantage but a vehicle for limited collective action will magnify its ability to project power.

A political party is an organization that collects dues from members to pursue collective political ends. Counter.Fund is an attempt to create the first natively internet political party that is built on crowdfunding and governed by those with the highest algorithmically measured political influence amongst its members.

Governance Structure
Counter.Fund's parliamentary House of Lords will be composed of the top Influencers as measured by money raised per month. The Lords will elect the 5 member Counter.Fund High Council to one year terms who advise the Chairman in all matters and have the power to hire and fire him. The Chairman manages operations of the platform, and administration of the party apparatus.

A forthcoming Counter.Fund Governance White Paper will be published before launch with details of all governance processes and comments will be requested from the community before as final version is ratified.

5th Political Theory in Practice

The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

Taleb explains how small minorities can influence society when there's a large difference in desire. Many foods are kosher because there are Jews who will not eat non-kosher, but non-Jews don't care if their food is kosher.

Muslims often violate Western political rules with impunity. For example, there was the foot washing installation in Minnesota.

Muslims also advance Anarcho-Tyranny. The security state, TSA privacy violations, NSA spying on Americans is all in response to the Cathedral's inability to violate its concept of non-discrimination.

Then there are the cucks like Theresa May, who go much further in destroying the Rights of the English. Theresa May says the internet must now be regulated following London Bridge terror attack

Being a majority dictatorship is much easier. I have the opposite view as Theresa May. Government regulation is a violation of our Sacred Rights. If Muslims aren't responsible enough to use it, then they must be excluded from society. If the government cannot provide security from Muslims airline passengers without gross violations of our privacy, if it cannot provide domestic tranquility with Muslims present in society, then Muslims must be excluded. We demand "safe spaces" where our Rights are not violated. We demand our own airlines, our own airports if necessary, our own Internet infrastructure if the State refuses to remove those who violate our standards.

Going further, we demand all people in our lands behave in a civilized manner. If people get too rowdy, throwing bottles, causing property damage and cursing in an area with children, we implore the police to use the level of force necessary to immediately restore order. If certain populations can not behave in a civilized manner and require constant police presence, they must also be removed. You are responsible for your behavior, we are not responsible for policing you. "Not our burden."

5PT – THE FIFTH POLITICAL THEORY
Due to the intellectual and political trajectory of the Western world, we exist not as peoples with states, but inside them. And among those who have cultivated a mindset of “saving” their nation, the hardest pill to swallow is that they will only be able to save those who elect to save themselves—to form a diasporic tribe rather than being dissolved into the homogenizing mass of consumption and nihilism. 5PT is about studying, defining, and implementing the ideal of the diasporic tribe.

5PT, unlike most other political theories, will not focus on wielding power on the international stage or directing it at other groups internally, but on creating spaces for “our people” which are capable of resisting the trends that work against. Rather than engaging in theories of global conflict or coexistence, of more interest is finding ways to live with the conflicts inside countries (or civilization blocs) that threaten our existence.
Create borders by being intolerant and/or demanding special treatment. Create unity by demanding certain behavior by members.

Cryptocurrencies restore our 4th Amendment Rights. We demand they be recognized as legal tender. (Eliminate taxes)
Gold is our traditional form of savings. We demand it be recognized as money. (Eliminate taxes)
We have a Right to self-defense. We demand expanded gun rights.
We have a right to unfettered travel within the nation. We demand an end to TSA privacy violations.
We are disgusted by public displays of homosexuality. We demand accommodations.
The sale and use of heroin/opiates among our people is forbidden. We demand physical removal and exile of all heroin dealers.

Imagine a Venn Diagram of three major groups within the dissident Right (ethnats, theonomists and techno-commercialists). There is a set of overlapping values.

Some of these have a good chance of success. It could be negative or positive where there is a majority. For example, demand peanut dust be added to all the food to exclude people with peanut allergies. In Europe, halal and kosher slaughter of animals is being banned for violating animal rights. Knock out the intolerant minority.

Others create a group consciousness and identity. Culture war works. A recent example is North Carolina's bathroom bill.

Once there is a tribe forming, then formal institutions can be built.

Finally, Aga Khan IV
Prince Shah Karim Al Hussaini, Aga Khan IV, KBE (Persian: شاه کریم حسینی، آقاخان چهارم‎‎, Urdu: شاه کریم حسینی، آقاخان چهارم‎; Aga Khan is also transliterated as Aqa Khan and Agha Khan[1]) was born on 13 December 1936, in Geneva, Switzerland. He is a British[2] business magnate,[3][4][5][6] racehorse owner and breeder,[3][7] as well as being the 49th and current Imam of Nizari Ismailism, a denomination of Ismailism within Shia Islam consisting of an estimated 25-30 million adherents (about 20% of the world's Shia Muslim population).[6][8][9][10] He has held this position of Imam, under the title of Aga Khan IV, since 11 July 1957,[11] when, at the age of 20, he succeeded his grandfather, Sir Sultan Muhammad Shah Aga Khan III. The Aga Khan claims to be a relative of the Islamic prophet Muhammad through Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law, Ali,[12] considered the first Imam in Shia Islam, and Ali's wife Fatima az-Zahra, Muhammad’s daughter from his first marriage. In 1986 the Aga Khan ordained the current version of the Ismailia Constitution – an ecclesiastical decree[13] affirming to Nizari Ismailis his "sole right to interpret the Qur'an and provide authoritative guidance on [all] matters of faith"[14] and formalising his sole discretion, power and authority for the governance of Nizari Ismaili jamats (places of worship) and institutions.[15]

Forbes describes the Aga Khan as one of the world's ten richest royals with an estimated net worth of US$800 million (2010). Additionally he is unique among the richest royals as he does not rule over a geographic territory.[16] He owns hundreds of racehorses, valuable stud farms, an exclusive yacht club on Sardinia,[17] a private island in the Bahamas,[18] two Bombardier jets, a £100 million high speed yacht Alamshar, named after his prize racehorse,[19] and several estates around the world, with his primary residence at Aiglemont estate in the town of Gouvieux, France, north of Paris. In 2008, the then French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged that the Aga Khan, a British citizen, would be let off all 'direct taxes, stamp duty, and wealth tax' by the country of France - saving the Aga Khan an amount estimated to be in the billions of Euros.[20] The Aga Khan's philanthropic institutions spend about US$600 million per year – mainly in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.[21]

Since his ascension to the Imamate of Nizari Ismailis in 1957, the Aga Khan has been involved in complex political and economic changes which have affected his Nizari Ismaili followers, including the independence of African countries from colonial rule, expulsion of Asians from Uganda, the independence of Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan from the former Soviet Union and the continuous turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan.[23] Aga Khan IV became the first faith leader to address the Joint Session of the Canadian Parliament on 27 February 2014.
Industries that prime for development are banking and insurance. Statistically, we have better credit and live healthier lives. If we build a credit institution that serves our people, we can enjoy lower interest rates and keep our capital fully under our control. Health insurance is legally much more difficult, but there would be similar gains simply from excluding the higher risk pools. In the past, there was not much to gain because there was no demographic advantage. Thanks to diversity, simply serving your own ethnic or racial group can deliver great benefits. Build planned communities or "colonize" towns, enjoy lower costs for police. Capture the excess surplus created from gentrification by privatizing towns into a shareholding venture. If there are many homeschoolers, public education (#1 cost for local government) would be much lower. Privatize "White Privilege."

However, you first need a phyle.

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Migration Is Invasion

23,000 jihadists in the UK.

Islamic jihad has a full division in the UK and is adding more soldiers daily.

Belgium has 19,000 jihadists and only about 36,000 EU bureaucrats.

Friday, June 02, 2017

Full Blow Trump Derangement: Brooks Misinterprets Thucydides

Donald Trump Poisons the World
It opens with:
This week, two of Donald Trump’s top advisers, H. R. McMaster and Gary Cohn, wrote the following passage in The Wall Street Journal: “The president embarked on his first foreign trip with a cleareyed outlook that the world is not a ‘global community’ but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage.”
And closes with:
I wish H. R. McMaster was a better student of Thucydides. He’d know that the Athenians adopted the same amoral tone he embraces: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” The Athenians ended up making endless enemies and destroying their own empire.
America under Bush and Obama was Athens, a nation with "alliances" of nations who contribute hardly any material support, but pay tribute. The standing of the U.S. kept falling because allies didn't agree with the wars it was starting. Athens was destroyed because it's large formal alliance proved to be an illusion. Sparta's loose coalition proved stronger when push came to shove.

Brooks also makes an appeal to altruism. Athens claimed it was being altruistic as well! America's Empire has probably been more genuinely altruistic, but I refer you to C.S. Lewis:
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
We're already seeing the response of Hungary and Poland to the EU's migrant demands and the Philippines pushing the U.S. away. Thailand and South Korea move closer to China. America's Greatest Allies, the U.K., Canada and Australia tire of the endless wars.

The final irony is Trump we are in the middle of a long-term populist wave. These populists with either be anti-American and hasten the demise of NATO, or they will be more like Poland and Hungary, preferring to deal with a Spartan America rather than an Athenian America.

Bitcoin Sense from The Economist

Since I've hammered The Economist a few times, here's an eminently sensible view of Bitcoin for those on the outside:
What if the bitcoin bubble bursts?
This may seem like a dangerous way to generate innovation. Investors could lose their shirts; a crash in one asset class could spread to others, creating wobbles in the financial system. But in the case of cryptocurrencies such risks seem limited. It is hard to argue that those buying cryptocurrencies are unaware of the risks. And since they are still a fairly self-contained system, contagion is unlikely.

If there is such a thing as a healthy bubble, this is it. To be sure, regulators should watch out that cryptocurrencies do not become even more of a conduit for criminal activity, such as drug dealing. But they should think twice before coming down hard, particularly on ICOs. Being too spiky would not just prick a bubble, but also prevent a lot of the useful innovation that is likely to come about at the same time.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Norm MacDonald Interview

The Civilization Filter

The Great Filter is an explanation for the Fermi paradox. One argument says the filter was far in the past. We live on a Privileged Planet. The Earth is in the right place in the Solar System and galaxy. The timing of cosmic events such as extinction level comet or asteroid strikes gave life enough time to develop. The odds of life even starting are so small, that existence of single-cell organisms is itself an extremely rare event in the universe. Some go so far as to argue the planet is also positioned for faster scientific discovery. God gave Man some cheat codes.

Most arguments say the filter is in the future. Comet bombardment, self-destruction via war or accident, take your pick.

While sci-fi writers, ELon Musk and Stephen Hawking focus on the future, in the present is the Civilization Filter.

New Generation of Bombs Undetectable by Airport Scanners: What’s the Solution?
RTD1: Rather, this will result in a massive push towards video conferencing/telepresence in lieu of business travel. I’ve been a management/technology consultant flying weekly for 20 years now, and if this ban were extended to all domestic and international flights, I’d likely either find an alternative to in-person meetings or switch careers if it were not feasible. I haven’t checked a bag (save for gate checking carry-ons on puddle jumpers) in years. I keep my timelines from landing to meeting starts pretty tight, and I count on flying time for working. I’m not unique, such a rule would be devastating for business travel.

Pax Britanica: There is always an element of business travel that is not really necessary but its hard line to draw between beneficial and essential. There are also events like conferences where most of the attendees don’t’ actually attend but meet with peers from other companies and do business just because a lot of people from one industry are in the same place. Ie the conference itself isn’t really ‘necessary’ but it’s a good opportunity to meet clients and suppliers without doing separate trips. Video links are usually fine for inside the company work and some external stuff but many cultures like the physical presence bit.

Mickjoebill: What about camera crews and photographers who carry kilos of lumpy electronic gear onboard? It is trivial to provide enough power to activate a camera to make the battery appear unadulterated when the cells have been repacked with something deadly. Unless every item is sniffed, a laptop ban seems half arsed.
The Pareto-optimal policy in a rational world is Israel's profiling of potential terrorists. They look for the men, not the devices. In the Anarcho-Tyranny of the West, technology is destroyed to allow for more Muslim migration. The Cathedral does not pass the Civilization Filter test.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Scientistry, For Lack of A Better Word, Is Bullshit

Science Needs a Solution for the Temptation of Positive Results
But true success will require a change in the culture of science. As long as the academic environment has incentives for scientists to work in silos and hoard their data, transparency will be impossible. As long as the public demands a constant stream of significant results, researchers will consciously or subconsciously push their experiments to achieve those findings, valid or not. As long as the media hypes new findings instead of approaching them with the proper skepticism, placing them in context with what has come before, everyone will be nudged toward results that are not reproducible.
Failure in science is good because it advances knowledge. But Man is no longer willing to risk failure, so he no longer engages in science.

Most of what passes for "science" these days is what Vox Day dubbed scientistry. It is political consensus, fraud, and moral corruption. If the general public cannot separate the scientific method and science from Man-made scientistry, eventually it might put science in the same category as alchemy and astrology.

Certain fields such as psychology might already be worse. A fortune teller uses reality to construct a message for the customer. A successful fortune teller tells you what you want to hear in exchange for money, a good one (an oracle) tells you what you need to hear. Much of what passes for psychological research is an effort to obscure reality. It is a largely a propaganda arm of the Cathedral.
Unfortunately, the rest of us have not been quite so careful. More and more data show we should be. In 2015, researchers reported on their replication of 100 experiments published in 2008 in three prominent psychology journals. Psychology studies don’t usually lead to much money or marketable products, so companies don’t focus on checking their robustness. Yet in this experiment, research results were just as questionable. The findings of the replications matched the original studies only one-third to one-half of the time, depending on the criteria used to define “similar.”
One problem for sociology is what Sailer calls "the war on noticing." Much of progressivism might be proven wrong by scientific studies, but disproving it is difficult. Those who do, such as Putnam, sit on their research for a time, or try to disprove it before releasing it (which is why it carries more weight and is more likely to be a significant finding). There are also other attempts to disprove it. Does Ethnic Diversity Have a Negative Effect on Attitudes towards the Community? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Claims within the Ethnic Diversity and Social Cohesion Debate
Studies demonstrate a negative association between community ethnic diversity and indicators of social cohesion (especially attitudes towards neighbours and the community), suggesting diversity causes a decline in social cohesion. However, to date, the evidence for this claim is based solely on cross-sectional research. This article performs the first longitudinal test of the impact of diversity, applying fixed-effects modelling methods to three waves of panel data from the British Household Panel Survey, spanning a period of 18 years. Using an indicator of affective attachment, the findings suggest that changes in community diversity do lead to changes in attitudes towards the community. However, this effect differs by whether the change in diversity stems from a community increasing in diversity around individuals who do not move ( stayers ) or individuals moving into more or less diverse communities ( movers ). Increasing diversity undermines attitudes among stayers. Individuals who move from a diverse to a homogeneous community report improved attitudes. However, there is no effect among individuals who move from a homogeneous to a diverse community. This article provides strong evidence that the effect of community diversity is likely causal, but that prior preferences for/against out-group neighbours may condition diversity’s impact. It also demonstrates that multiple causal processes are in operation at the individual-level , occurring among both stayers and movers , which collectively contribute to the emergence of average cross-sectional differences in attitudes between communities. Unique insights into the causal impact of community disadvantage also emerge.

Related: On That Penis Paper Causes Global Warming Hoax
(Thanks to This Week In Reaction (2017/05/28))

China's Plans for the South China Sea

Beijing curbs exports of big island-building diggers
In a notice dated on Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said that from June 1 all export deals for dredgers that might affect national security would require State Council approval.

The notice listed five types of dredgers that could dig more than 15 metres deep, had a large carrying capacity and could dredge at high speed.

China has reclaimed more than 1,295 hectares of land in the southeastern South China Sea, according to a Pentagon report released in May last year.
China is taking over the entire South China Sea in plain sight. Who else would be digging up the sea and building islands except for the rightful owners?

Monday, May 29, 2017

We Remember

Triumph at Kasserine Pass
The Battle of Kasserine Pass—actually a series of battles in February 1943 when raw American troops had their first major battlefield encounters with the German army—has long ranked as one of the worst disasters ever suffered by the United States Army. Inexperienced and nervous GIs, overwhelmed and beset by rumors and chaos, abandoned their positions, destroyed their supplies, clogged roads in headlong flight, or simply melted away in the night. In 10 days, panicked American forces were hurled back 50 miles, losing 183 tanks and nearly 7,000 men, including 300 killed and 3,000 missing.

“Even these many years later,” General Omar Bradley wrote shortly before his death in 1981, “it pains me to reflect
on that disaster. It was probably the worst performance of U.S. Army troops in their whole proud history.” To Americans back home, wrote historian Martin Blumenson, “the event was incredible. It shook the foundations of their faith, extinguished the glowing excitement that anticipated quick victory, and, worst of all, raised doubt that the righteous necessarily triumphed.”

Saturday, May 27, 2017

Who Are the Meek?

There is no such thing as a failed soldier, dead or alive (unless he acted in a cowardly manner)—likewise there is no such thing as a failed entrepreneur or failed scientific researcher. -Taleb

Taleb encourages us to take risks, even though most of us will fail. Real progress is often achieved through failure, by figuring out what doesn't work before someone figures out what does work.

We don't stand on the shoulders of giants, we stand on the backs of the failures, piled ever higher because our ancestors kept fighting.

Capitalism offers a great reward in this life for those who achieve success, but capitalism only goes so far. It's an incentive, but a temporal and rational one. The capitalist thinks in terms of cost and benefit, opportunity costs and marginal gains. If the math doesn't work, the capitalist moves on to other ventures. Wealthy societies take fewer risks.

To maximize risk taking, maximize the number of "fights" and also maximize the number of failures and successes. There's going to more failure than anything else. Most people avoid failure.

Who has the best message for failure? The ultimate "failure", Jesus Christ.

2 Corinthians 12:9-10
But he said to me, “My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness.” Therefore I will boast all the more gladly of my weaknesses, so that the power of Christ may rest upon me. For the sake of Christ, then, I am content with weaknesses, insults, hardships, persecutions, and calamities. For when I am weak, then I am strong.

Romans 5:3-5
More than that, we rejoice in our sufferings, knowing that suffering produces endurance, and endurance produces character, and character produces hope, and hope does not put us to shame, because God's love has been poured into our hearts through the Holy Spirit who has been given to us.

Matthew 7:7-8
Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you:
For every one that asketh receiveth; and he that seeketh findeth; and to him that knocketh it shall be opened.

Matthew 5:5
Blessed are the meek, for they will inherit the earth.

Friday, May 26, 2017

The Future: Social Credit and Public Central Bank Blockchain

Imagine this falling into the hands of baizuo and the Poz Patrol.
CHINA’S SOCIAL CREDIT SYSTEM
The ultimate goal is to build self-enforcing mechanisms for business regulation: Based on advanced big data technologies, the system is designed to constantly monitor and evaluate companies’ economic as well as
non-economic behavior. Automatically generated and updated rating scores will have an immediate impact on their business opportunities. Intervention by government bodies can thus be reduced to setting the rules, standards, and, eventually, algorithms for the system. This will minimize their constant supervision of and visible interference in market processes.

The system will create strong incentives for companies to make their business decisions and operations comply not just with laws and regulations but also with the industrial and technological policy targets laid down by the Chinese government. Foreign companies active on the Chinese market are planned to be integrated into the system and treated the same way as their Chinese competitors. Foreign companies will also be subjected to the full extent of industrial policy guidance.

At the heart of the Social Credit System lies massive data collection on company activities by government agencies and authorized rating entities. The system has the potential to strengthen transparency and trustworthiness
in market exchanges as well as the socially and environmentally responsible behavior of companies. On the other hand, it will be prone to failing technologies, data manipulation, and the politically induced, unidirectional
allocation of investments. It will thus reduce the capacity for autonomous business decisions or non-standard disruptive business models and pose a constant risk to the protection of proprietary company data.
One reason why central planning failed was the lack of data. You can't centrally plan an economy when you don't have all the data necessary. Big Data is a scientific solution to the problems of scientific socialism. There will be those who want to try again because the problem of data collection will appear to be overcome.
If the Chinese government succeeds in implementing the Social Credit System and its related mechanisms, companies’ market activities will be regulated in a self-enforcing manner: enabled by advanced big data technologies, the system is designed to constantly monitor and evaluate companies’ economic as well as non-economic behavior. Automatically generated and updated rating scores will have an immediate impact on companies’ business opportunities. This creates a strong incentive for companies to make their business decisions and operations comply not just with laws and regulations but also with the government’s industrial and technological policy targets. Beijing terms this the “self-restriction of companies” (企业自我约束)
While a centrally planned economy is still likely to fail, a "Mark of the Beast" economy could function. Imagine if you get "Poz Points" for your social media posts. Imagine this lowers your mortgage rate or gets you pushed ahead in line at the airport, or for a university slot. Even your tax rate might adjust:
Possible punishments as a result of bad ratings include:

unfavorable conditions for a new loan
higher taxes than compliant competitors
no permission to issue any bonds or invest in companies listed
on the stock market
decreased chances to participate in publicly-funded projects
mandatory government approval for investments, even in sectors where market access is not usually regulated

In severe cases, the company’s e-commerce accounts could be shut down and even its high-level management’s individual credit ratings could be affected. A company’s manager could be denied tickets for high-speed trains or for international business flights. On the other hand, a fully compliant company can benefit from:

a largely open Chinese market with manifold investment opportunities
low tax burdens
good credit conditions
gentle support from government incentive mechanisms
China's already implementing parts of the system: China penalises 6.7m debtors with travel ban
China has banned almost 7m people from taking flights and high-speed trains over the past four years as a penalty for not repaying their debts, the country’s Supreme Court has announced.

The penalty system is part of efforts to build a nationwide “social credit” system that will rate every Chinese citizen by collecting big data on financial, legal or social misdeeds. The debtors’ travel ban has been touted as an important first step for building the structural links needed to implement such a comprehensive monitoring programme.

“We have signed a memorandum . . . [with over] 44 government departments in order to limit ‘discredited’ people on multiple levels,” Meng Xiang, head of the executive department of the Supreme Court, told state media on Wednesday. The memorandum includes all the country’s big banks as well as the national public security bureau.

Since 2013 the Supreme Court has operated a “discredited” blacklist of long-term debtors who have been ordered to repay what they owe. All 6.73m people on the list have been banned from boarding flights and high-speed trains.

The ban works by blocking personal ID card numbers, which are required for buying and checking in for flights and trains as well as staying in hotels. Anyone can search the blacklist via the Supreme Court’s website by entering a full name and ID card number.
Technology is whatever you make of it. Totalitarians will have an ability to control you as never before, an iron fist in a velvet glove as never before. Wouldn't you be stupid to question Bruce Jenner's sex if it meant your tax rate and mortgage goes up? There will be no escape because all commerce will eventually be conducted publicly using the People's Bank of China's blockchain.

Slavery in Hong Kong

When the foreigners are kicked out of the West, a process that will remove the West from global politics for a long period of time, they will return to a very different world.

Slave husbands of Hong Kong: The men who marry into servitude
Shahid Sandhu's sense of loss and anxiety from his loveless marriage knows no bounds. But his is more than a bad connection.

From the time he left Pakistan to join his new wife overseas four years ago, she, her brothers and her parents have been controlling his every move.

They force him to work round the clock, seven days a week - as a bonded labourer at a construction site during the day and as an indentured servant at home on evenings and his day off. They beat him and verbally abuse him at any sign of exhaustion or dissent. They take all his money, refuse him food and have even threatened to kill him.

Sandhu knows what they are doing is wrong and illegal, but the endless abuse has broken him down. He battles severe depression and nightmares, too exhausted, afraid and ashamed to speak out.

Sandhu's situation sounds as if it's from a bygone era, but it is happening today, in one of the world's most advanced cities: Hong Kong.

Sandhu, who has a university degree in commerce, had a respectable job at a bank in Pakistan, but his salary was meagre and the prospect of a prosperous life in Hong Kong meant financial security for his parents. He married his bride in Pakistan, arriving in Hong Kong months later on a dependant visa.

The post-wedding bliss vanished immediately. Sandhu's in-laws and wife locked away his passport and identity papers for "safe keeping" - something that is against the law - then informed him that he would be working overtime at a construction site six days a week to earn money for his bride and her entire family. Every night, and on his one day off each week, he would do the domestic work. Whenever Sandhu complained, verbal and physical abuse kept him in his place.

"Immigration never recognises them as slaves," he said. "They insist they are able-bodied people and can decide on their own."
The latter is true. The problem is, once again, diversity. Where Western and East Asian men would flee, or possibly murder their families, these men stay. Hong Kong authorities are shocked at their behavior, but it doesn't qualify as slavery there.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Sustainable Investing aka Capital Destruction

4 Reasons Sustainable Investing Is Entering the Mainstream
First, by adding ESG to your practice, you are swimming with the tide of investor interest rather than against it. We've been wearing out this tune, but millennials and women consistently indicate high levels of interest in sustainable investing, and these two broad categories of investors are commanding more and more assets. As the massive intergenerational transfer of wealth starts to happen, money will flow into the hands of younger investors, who will be about as likely to be women as men. It's possible that millennials' interest in ESG is merely a lifecycle effect that will moderate over time as they grow older, perhaps less idealistic, and more focused on making money without regard to the societal and environmental impact of their investments. But I doubt it. Their interest in ESG seems more in line with what public opinion experts call a cohort effect, which is likely to persist over time.
They won't stop destroying capital until they've lost all their money.
Second, selecting investments for your clients' portfolios that consider how well companies are managing environmental, social, and corporate governance issues is a way to reduce risk. The risks of poor corporate governance have long been recognized by analysts, while those relating to environmental or social factors are less well understood. Nonetheless, firms that manage environmental issues poorly have to deal with costs from fines, litigation, and cleanups, while also facing reputational risks for poor environmental stewardship.
Since government can coerce compliance, this makes sense. Especially if the company's customers are into progressivism. It's not as important if you care more about profits (cash in the bank) than perception (stock price today).
A third reason to add ESG to your practice is the opportunity to connect with clients on a deeper level. The job of an advisor is no longer limited to simply picking investments based on a risk-tolerance questionnaire. A robo-advisor can do that. Real-life advisors are becoming more like "money counselors" for their clients, helping them forge healthy relationships with money and the ways it can enhance their happiness. An advisor able to help those highly interested in sustainability make a difference with their money will develop a deeper bond than many advisors have with clients.
Get religion!
Finally, incorporating sustainable investing into your practice can be a great way to differentiate yourself and your practice. There is still a first-mover opportunity in many markets. With sustainable investing already entrenched among institutional investors and with an estimated $9 trillion in assets in the United States and $23 trillion globally, it isn't going away. If you have an established practice, adding an ESG capability may help you retain assets as your older clients pass money to younger generations--or when married women, who tend to outlive their husbands, take control of their investments.
1. Start an investment advisory
2. Focus on "sustainable investing"
3. Lead a purity spiral
4. $$$
5. For your personal account, invest in "unsustainable investments"
6. $$$

Setting Up Trump For Next Recession

A conspiracy theory out there says TPTB will crash the economy to take out Trump and populism in one fell stroke. I'm always skeptical of conspiracy theories where human stupidity is a better explanation. The Federal Reserve is mainly run by college professors. The smartest of the smartest created Long Term Capital Management and nearly blew up the financial system in the late 1990s. The Fed cut rates in the late 1990s, fearful of Y2K and the fallout from LTCM. Those cuts launched the final vertical move in dotcom stocks. In the 2000s, the Fed held rates low for too long and created the housing bubble. It denied there was a housing bubble. When problems began to manifest, Fed Chair Bernanke said subprime was contained. The Fed did three rounds of quantitative easing, following the Japanese example. It failed in Japan. The Fed thought it would work in America. The results look a lot like Japan. The Bank of Japan tried hiking rates after doing QE and economic growth stopped. The 10-year Japanese government bond was around 2% then, now it is near zero, and at times below zero. The Fed thinks it can keep hiking interest rates and inflation will stay level or increase.

The Cathedral doesn't understand economics (orthodox Cathedral economics says debt doesn't matter), but it understands that it hates Trump. Whatever bad outcomes arise from Federal Reserve policies, Trump will bear the blame. If anyone can flip the Narrative on the Cathedral though, it is Trump. He could blame the Federal Reserve, bankers, globalists, etc. He could savage Republicans who block tax cuts over deficit concerns. There are dissident economists and online forces that will support a counter-narrative. Plan now, because the IYIs at Fed are steering the economy into a credit deflation and recession.

The Trump Collapse Scapegoat Narrative Has Now Been Launched
The media was building the foundation of the narrative from the moment Trump won the election. Bloomberg was quick to publish its rather hilariously skewed propaganda on the matter, asserting that Trump was lucky to inherit an economy in ascendance and recovery because of the fiscal ingenuity of Barack Obama. This is of course utter nonsense. Obama and the Fed have created a zombie economy rotting from the inside out, nothing more. But, as Bloomberg noted rightly, any downturn within the system will indeed be blamed on the Trump administration.

Fortune Magazine, adding to the narrative, outlined the view that the initial stock rally surrounding Trump’s election win was merely setting the stage for a surprise market crash.

I continue to go one further than the mainstream media and say that the Trump administration is a giant cement shoe designed (deliberately) to drag conservatives and conservative principles down into the abyss as we are blamed by association for the financial calamity that will occur on Trump’s watch.

Last week’s sudden market bloodletting is important in this regard; 400 points down is hardly a flesh wound to a 20,000 point Dow, but the media’s reaction to it was very revealing on what the future has in store. Multiple news outlets responded by immediately connecting the drop to Trump and the absurdity surrounding the “Comey memo” — a memo which no one in the public has seen proof of. The claim is that this level of turmoil around Trump might lead to impeachment and that the threat of impeachment would kill the stock market bounce which the media also claims was driven by Trump’s promises of corporate tax cuts. It's a lie built on another lie.

It is interesting to me that the mainstream media never said the market drop was caused by “Comey’s turmoil,” or by “The Washington Post and The New York Times’ turmoil.” No, they called it “Trump’s turmoil.” Last week’s stock dive was, in my opinion, the official launch of the Trump collapse narrative. The establishment was beta testing it for months, but now, the program has gone live.

Every single stock decline from now on, as well as the ultimate economic crash, which will become visible to the public in short order, will be blamed on Donald Trump and conservatives by extension. As I said, he is the perfect scapegoat.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

David Brooks Tells Us About Alienation

This should be good. David Brooks is an expert in alienation, his own son was so alienated from America that he joined the Israeli army.

The Alienated Mind
The last four months, on the other hand, have been an education in the shortcomings in populism. It’s not only that Donald Trump is a bad president. It’s that movements fueled by alienation are bound to fail.

Alienation, the sociologist Robert Nisbet wrote, is a “state of mind that can find a social order remote, incomprehensible or fraudulent; beyond real hope or desire; inviting apathy, boredom, or even hostility.”
An America organized around the idea of alienated foreigners is doomed to failure.
The alienated long for something that will smash the system or change their situation, but they have no actual plan or any means to deliver it. The alienated are a hodgepodge of disparate groups.
The Democrat party coalition.
Worse, alienation breeds a distrust that corrodes any collective effort. To be “woke” in the alienated culture is to embrace the most cynical interpretation of every situation, to assume bad intent in every actor, to imagine the conspiratorial malevolence of your foes.
That's racist!
Alienation breeds a hysterical public conversation. Its public intellectuals are addicted to overstatement, sloppiness, pessimism, and despair. They are self-indulgent and self-lionizing prophets of doom who use formulations like “the Flight 93 election” — who speak of every problem as if it were the apocalypse.
Oscars so white!
The events of the past four months illustrate that we do need a political establishment in this country, or maybe a few competing establishments. We need people who have been educated to actually know something about public policy problems. We need people who have had gradual, upward careers in government and understand the craft of wielding power. We need people who know how to live up to certain standards of integrity and public service.
A military coup led by the captains and lt colonels?
The first task for this better establishment is to not make the political chasm worse. As the impeachment investigation proceeds, it’ll be important for us Trump critics to not set our hair on fire every day, to evaluate the evidence as if it were against a president we ourselves voted for. Would we really throw our own candidate out of office for this?

Over the longer term, it will be necessary to fight alienation with participation, to reform and devolve the welfare state so that recipients are not treated like passive wards of the state, but take an active role in their own self-government.
Is Brooks a Hotep?
It’ll be necessary to revive a living elite patriotism. That means conducting oneself in office as if nation is more important than party; not using executive orders, filibusters and the nuclear option to grab what you can while you happen to be in the majority. It means setting up weekly encounters to help you respect and understand the fellow Americans who reside across the social chasms.
Or choose a new elite.

Baizuo Removal Groundwork Being Laid

Seattle might be the baizuo capital of the world.
When we hire white folks to work in communities of color, it can get confusing.
Years later (after I had stopped working there), the organization was planning a performance arts project featuring South Asian women and their personal stories. This white colleague expressed interest in co-leading the project. As participants, my friend and I expressed our disapproval with this idea to the organizer. We couldn’t imagine having a white woman in the room while we were sharing our very personal ideas in what was meant to be a space for South Asian women. It felt voyeuristic. I followed up on this complaint with a 1-1 conversation with this white colleague, who was my friend at the time. We had a long conversation where I explained that it didn’t feel right for her to be present in the project, and I asked her directly, “why do you feel like it is okay to be leading this?” Her response was “Because this is a project of [the organization], and I’m a part of [the organization].” It was a simple response, and I couldn’t argue with that in particular; yes, she worked there and was a part of the organization. But still, did that mean she could be leading a project that aimed to create a safe space for South Asian women? The organization decided not to let her co-lead the project, and I’m grateful they took our feedback at the time.

I recently spoke to Polly Trout, a white woman who founded Seattle Education Access (SEA) in 2002. “The mission of SEA was to help marginalized youth get back on track with education. By walking side by side with these young people, most of whom were both people of color and grew up in intergenerational poverty, really radicalized my politics. I was a typical white lady, naive and ignorant,” she chuckled. She told me a story of accompanying an undocumented student to a financial aid office, where the officer grilled the student with many questions, beyond what was even legal to ask. Polly said that the officer looked directly at her and said “I hope you understand, we have to be careful with those people.”

“White people don’t often see this despicable behavior in the daylight, right in front of them. We don’t have to see it, we hide from it and we are protected from it,” said Polly. Incidents like this sparked her journey and reflections. “By 2013, I had realized I made some really profound mistakes in 2002. My founding board was an all white board, which fed the white supremacy embedded in the culture of the organization. For that and some other reasons I resigned from SEA,” she said. “After leaving SEA in 2014, I made a vow that I was not gonna apply for any jobs that would be better filled by a leader of color,” she said.
Seattle Demographics:

White: 69.5% (Non-Hispanic Whites: 66.3%)
Asian: 13.8% (4.1% Chinese, 2.6% Filipino, 2.2% Vietnamese, 1.3% Japanese, 1.1% Korean, 0.8% Indian, 0.3% Cambodian, 0.3% Laotian, 0.2% Pakistanis, 0.2% Indonesian, 0.2% Thai)

The beauty of the argument is it cannot be refuted within the left. Baizuo set up these organizations to help POC, but the only way to truly help anyone is to give them responsibility. Baizuo are white supremacists not because they believe whites are superior, but because they behave as if whites are superior and place POC into subordinate roles. Baizuo create aid organizations and then colonize them.

"White privilege" is a big deal with baizuo because they are subconsciously white supremacist. The white nationalist doesn't seek to run the local NAACP office or work in aid communities of South Asian women. The baizuo says all whites have "white privilege," but really it is only a sin for baizuo, like how Original Sin is a Christian sin.

For baizuo to reach enlightenment, or nirvana, or whatever their higher stage is called, they must remove themselves from the presence of POC. Eventually, this will be accomplished with baizuo suicides.

Seen at nrxn

Monday, May 22, 2017

How Did Chinese Dismantle CIA Network

Was it hacking, or a mole? Whatever it was, good luck trying to find the noise in all this signaling.
House IT Aides Fear Suspects In Hill Breach Are Blackmailing Members With Their Own Data

A manager at a tech-services company that works with Democratic House offices said he approached congressional offices, offering their services at one-fourth the price of Awan and his Pakistani brothers, but the members declined. At the time, he couldn’t understand why his offers were rejected but now he suspects the Awans exerted some type of leverage over members.

“There’s no question about it: If I was accused of a tenth of what these guys are accused of, they’d take me out in handcuffs that same day, and I’d never work again,” he said.
Everyone thinks blackmail, but why not "that's racist!" like in Rotherham.

New Class War

The New Class War
Hobson’s lurid prediction of “yellow mercenary troops” being used to suppress Western workforces, like similar turn-of-the-century Yellow Peril prophecies, has not materialized. But his other predictions, translated into modern language, have come to pass. The claim of neoliberal ideologues that Western industrial workers who lose their jobs to offshoring in China and other low-wage countries would obtain new and better jobs in the “knowledge economy” was precisely a promise that, in the postindustrial West, most workers would share the intellectual property rents of the knowledge economy, rather like “independent gentlemen,” while Asian proles and peasants labored in factories. In the pages of the Economist and other propaganda organs of the managerial oligarchy, the claim that the lower prices of Chinese consumer goods outweigh the harm done to the Western working class by partial deindustrialization is routinely repeated, more than a century after Hobson’s prediction.

Hobson envisioned a dystopian future for a deindustrialized West ruled by a class of transnational managers and investors:

We have foreshadowed the possibility of an even larger alliance of Western States, a European federation of great Powers which, so far from forwarding the cause of world-civilisation, might introduce the gigantic peril of a Western parasitism, a group of advanced industrial nations, whose upper classes drew vast tribute from Asia and Africa, with which they supported great tame masses of retainers, no longer engaged in the staple industries of agriculture and manufacture, but kept in the performance of personal or minor industrial services under the control of a new financial aristocracy.

Hobson further warned: “The greater part of Western Europe might then assume the appearance and character already exhibited by tracts of country in the South of England, in the Riviera, and in the tourist-ridden or residential parts of Italy and Switzerland, little clusters of wealthy aristocrats drawing dividends and pensions from the Far East, with a somewhat larger group of professional retainers and tradesmen and a large body of personal servants.” The “little clusters” of rich rentiers and their professional retainers and menial servants bring to mind today’s increasingly stratified “global cities” like London, New York, and San Francisco, embedded in nation-states with large tracts of derelict, former industrial zones.

Friday, May 19, 2017

The Overton Window in One Picture

Fox News is "right-wing" because it is actually"Fair and Balanced" in its news reporting.
Harvard Study Reveals Huge Extent of Anti-Trump Media Bias

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Unskilled Labor Destroys Productivity

Sailer finds another mistake in the mainstream financial press: Oops ...
Productivity in [U.S.] construction has contracted at a 1% annual rate since 1995, according to a study by McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of McKinsey & Co., due in part to reliance on unskilled workers and in part to government red tape.

Joel Shine, chief executive of builder Woodside Homes Inc., visited Kyoto, Japan, to see how firms there use automation in home construction. He thinks it would take at least a decade for the innovations to become mainstream in the U.S., in part because they would require building-code changes.
The most simple model of capitalism is a man on an island. He can catch enough fish and coconuts during the day to stay alive. However, if he takes time to make a spear, he could catch more fish. Since his spear making will take several hours, he works extra hard to catch more fish and coconuts one day, eating the surplus while he makes his tool. Now he can generate surplus everyday, and he starts drying fish to preserve them. Then he realizes with a net he could catch enough fish in one day to feed himself for a month, and then he can dry them for a day, and have the rest of the month free. And then he'd have time to build a nice shelter instead of living under a lean-to...

Create extra resources so you can build better tools, to create even more extra resources and build even better tools. Productivity goes up and wages follow. Constraining labor supply forces greater investment in capital (including intellectual), easing labor supply retards capital accumulation and capital investment.

Leave out debt and all the other complexities of a modern economy. At he most basic level, unskilled/low-skill immigration and the economic arguments in favor of it are retarded. The only time it might make sense is when there is a capital surplus, a dearth of labor AND capital investments in productivity will take time (wages would be high and rising rapidly). And then it would only make sense to use temporary guest workers who can accelerate productivity gains (such as rebuilding highways after the war in Germany), workers who are sent home after their term of service.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Cathedral Bubble Crystallizes

Urban Douthat goes full Cathedral, or is so gaslit it makes no difference.

The 25th Amendment Solution for Removing Trump
But a child also cannot really commit “high crimes and misdemeanors” in any usual meaning of the term. There will be more talk of impeachment now, more talk of a special prosecutor for the Russia business; well and good. But ultimately I do not believe that our president sufficiently understands the nature of the office that he holds, the nature of the legal constraints that are supposed to bind him, perhaps even the nature of normal human interactions, to be guilty of obstruction of justice in the Nixonian or even Clintonian sense of the phrase. I do not believe he is really capable of the behind-the-scenes conspiring that the darker Russia theories envision. And it is hard to betray an oath of office whose obligations you evince no sign of really understanding or respecting.

Which is not an argument for allowing him to occupy that office. It is an argument, instead, for using a constitutional mechanism more appropriate to this strange situation than impeachment: the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, which allows for the removal of the president if the vice president and a majority of the cabinet informs the Congress that he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” and (should the president contest his own removal) a two-thirds vote by Congress confirms the cabinet’s judgment.

The Trump situation is not exactly the sort that the amendment’s Cold War-era designers were envisioning. He has not endured an assassination attempt or suffered a stroke or fallen prey to Alzheimer’s. But his incapacity to really govern, to truly execute the serious duties that fall to him to carry out, is nevertheless testified to daily — not by his enemies or external critics, but by precisely the men and women whom the Constitution asks to stand in judgment on him, the men and women who serve around him in the White House and the cabinet.

Read the things that these people, members of his inner circle, his personally selected appointees, say daily through anonymous quotations to the press. (And I assure you they say worse off the record.) They have no respect for him, indeed they seem to palpitate with contempt for him, and to regard their mission as equivalent to being stewards for a syphilitic emperor.

It is not squishy New York Times conservatives who regard the president as a child, an intellectual void, a hopeless case, a threat to national security; it is people who are self-selected loyalists, who supported him in the campaign, who daily go to work for him. And all this, in the fourth month of his administration.

Rural VDH wants Severed Heads
Donald ‘You’re Fired’ Trump

Into this matrix barged politically incorrect and often mercurial Donald Trump, whose past televised celebrity was largely a result of hosting a reality show in which he ostentatiously fired poor performers.
Trump’s misdemeanor was not that he fired someone who deserved to be fired, but that he did so as if he were still the host of The Apprentice rather than the president of the United States.

Yet the real felony remains the exemptions given to high officials such as Lerner, Napolitano, and Rice who have wreaked havoc because they assume they will never be fired. Even a badly conducted severing of a culpable government head is always preferable to an adroit exemption from any consequences. The one is rare and salutary, the other is commonplace and insidious.

Cry not for the firing of James Comey, but for the thousands of Americans who suffer from these incompetent and haughty officials who are never held accountable.

Benedict XVI Speaks

Benedict XVI SPEAKS: “With Cardinal Sarah, a master of silence and of interior prayer, the liturgy is in good hands.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Progressives Are Cargo Cultists

The women missing from the silver screen and the technology used to find them
When they were 8 and 10, Kimberly and Rebecca Yeung had to choose who to send to space. The spacecraft the two constructed in their garage only had a payload big enough for one action figure. The sisters decided on Rey, the heroine of the movie Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

With Rey in the captain’s seat, the Yeung sisters’ spaceship lifted off. It was powered by a helium-filled balloon and was outfitted with solar panels, GPS, video cameras, and sensors to capture data and relay it back to Earth in real time. Their hope: reach the stratosphere at roughly 40,000 feet. Instead they soared even higher, to 101,000 ft. They had reached beyond their dreams, to the very edge of space.

Rey may be a fictional character, but to Rebecca and Kimberly she is a very real role model. “We know that sometimes people have said that things like technology and science were only for boys,” Kimberly says. “But knowing that there are people who are role models for us makes us feel good about our interests and what we like to do.”
This is a weak form of the cargo cult, that if you put images of people doing things on the screen, then people will be willing and able to do them.
The characters we see on-screen play a significant part in determining the roles we occupy off-screen. In a recent study, only 15% of K-12 students remember seeing women performing computer science tasks "most of the time" in film or TV. This is reflected in real life where women make up only 17% of computer science majors – a steady decline from a peak at 37% in 1984. There are many reasons for this decline, but stronger female representation in programming, coding, and engineering roles on the big screen can help everyone envision women filling those roles in real life. This is an issue Google's Computer Science in Media team has been focused on for years, working with creators and producers to improve the portrayal of these fields in TV and movies.
We know the reason for the decline: feminism and wealth. The greater the wealth, the greater the choices available to women, and the more they gravitate to "feminine" jobs.

Exit questions:

If you raise your daughter without television or movies, would she be more or less likely to take up computer science?
Two daughters are raised by a single parent, one by the mother, the other by the father. Which one is more likely to study computer science?

What Did Democrats Know, And When Did They Know It?

Family of slain DNC staffer Seth Rich blasts detective over report of WikiLeaks link
Murdered DNC Staffer Seth Rich Shared 44,053 Democrat Emails With WikiLeaks: Report
"My investigation up to this point shows there was some degree of email exchange between Seth Rich and WikiLeaks," Wheeler told Fox News. "I do believe that the answers to who murdered Seth Rich sits on his computer on a shelf at the DC police or FBI headquarters."

“My investigation shows someone within the D.C. government, Democratic National Committee or Clinton team is blocking the murder investigation from going forward,” Wheeler told Fox News. “That is unfortunate. Seth Rich’s murder is unsolved as a result of that.”
Using Cathedral standards of evidence:

Anyone pushing the Russia Narrative could potentially be part of a vast left-wing conspiracy covering up the murder of Seth Rich. The murder was probably ordered by a high level official in the Obama White House or the Hillary Clinton campaign. We know Obama said, "I'm really good at killing people." We know a lot of Clinton associates turn up dead. This is stronger evidence than Trump saying something nice about Putin.

We need a special prosecutor to investigate every high level official who pushed the Russia Narrative because we don't know who is at the center of the conspiracy. Also for prominent journalists driving the case. WaPo has been particularly aggressive. Jeff Bezos should be investigated too. We need to unmask all of them in NSA surveillance and look into all their communications over the past year. It's the only way we can be sure what happened.

What are the odds 200 members of Congress will be put in prison by 2019? If you are in the Cathedral, you must think those odds are 80% or more.

Will Donald Trump be president at year-end 2018?. Current price for yes is 63 cents, a 59% return if Trump is still in office at the end of 2018.

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