10.31.2016

Trump Breaks 40

Trump broke through 40 cents at the Iowa Electronic Market. This is the highest I expected Trump would reach in the market because of anti-Trump propaganda in the media, so I read this as the market effectively saying the race is a toss up. If you're looking for better betting odds, Betting sites still have Trump around 25%.

Update: With Trump odds at 40, I'm now betting on Republicans holding onto the Senate. Odds there are still less than 3:1.

10.28.2016

Huge Buying of Trump at the Iowa Electronic Market

You have to pay almost 39 cents if you want a Trump contract now (2.6:1 odds, down from more than 11:1 days ago). Volume for Mr. Trump was more than 10,000 contracts yesterday.

If you really want to bet big money (the entire IEM winner-take-all presidential market is only $113,000 currently) then currency markets are where to play. The Mexican peso will tank if Trump wins and the Chinese yuan might be devalued if they decide they need to act before he takes office. China cannot allow its currency to rise or even stay level with the U.S. dollar if it continues to rise, and it is going to fall anyway.

10.27.2016

Obamacare: Gift for Whomever Wins

My Defective Obamacare Health Insurance Product Just Blew Up
It would make far more economic sense to pay the tax penalty for not having insurance, save the monthly payment, and squirrel it away for a catastrophic event that may never occur. Should a catastrophic event occur, work out a payment plan with doctors and hospitals, for which you’d use the squirreled away premiums until the next open enrollment period, at which point you just jump right back into a plan again because they can’t keep you out for preexisting conditions. Should a catastrophic event never occur, you’ve got no small part of a college education put away. My health insurance used to be a rational and responsible purchase. It’s beginning to feel like neither.
Obamacare did something hugely positive: it broke the employer link. It then drove healthcare costs up so high that it makes more sense to have no insurance. For millions of Americans with no insurance, they lose nothing if you tear down the system and replace it with a system that looks more like auto insurance with the return of low cost/high deductible plans. Many will see their situation improve. Most of these people would've strongly opposed a plan to create free market health system because they would fear losing their health insurance. They have lost it and more thanks to Obama.

Gruber was out today saying Obamacare is working as intended. I think he would pass a lie detector with flying colors saying that. The plan all along was to destroy the system and make it into single payer. Obama screwed it up though, to the point where there's a base of tens of millions of people who will gladly sign up for free market reforms. There's no downside if Trump has a GOP Congress. They can ram through free market reforms and the result will be an improvement. Had they tried to do this prior to Obamacare, the initial impact would be negative for many people if only because it would force a change they didn't want to make. The short-term negative effects of free market reforms are already implemented.

The big step forward will be tax reform. All insurer paid health insurance premiums should be counted as gross income and income tax rate adjusted down to make it revenue neutral. Incentives will take over and pop the healthcare bubble.

Obamacare is a wonderful gift for whomever controls the levers of power and is willing to creatively use its destruction of America's healthcare system.

Bundy Ranch Stand-Off Was FBI Operation

Nine Federal Informants Took Part in Bundy Occupation
Minoggio was one of 15 confidential informants who fed the FBI information about the occupiers, testimony showed.

Nine of the 15 were at the refuge for various lengths of time between Jan. 4 and Jan. 26, according to a statement that Assistant U.S. Attorney Craig Gabriel read to jurors. Those nine included the three who have been identified at trial: Minoggio, defense witness Terri Linnell of California and Mark McConnell, who was the driver of the Jeep that Ammon Bundy was riding in when he was arrested on Jan. 26.
Just like their terror plots where the terrorist was "under surveillance."

The FBI can't stop crimes before they happen because that would require downsizing the FBI.

Bernie Voters Sad

Useful idiot is as useful idiot does.

Leftists Rig Their Own Primaries
The vote pattern identified in the analysis of the Canova – Wasserman-Schultz primary, a closely watched race, is uncovered by what election experts call “cumulative vote tally” analysis. This analysis arranges precincts by size – numbers of registered voters – and studies candidate performance along these lines. As with many counties, cities,and towns in the Democratic primaries, the experts found a tendency for the “establishment” candidate to do much better as precinct size increased.

The pattern is suggestive of the electronic version of “ballot stuffing” in larger precincts. The relationship was uncanny, according to the election experts and mathematicians, with no good explanation when controlled for race, income, or any other demographic factor.
The evidence of malfeasance in the DNC is now overwhelming. It is hilarious and it will keep being hilarious as long as Bernie voters are pulling the lever for Hillary.

Trump Contracts Rally

Trump has whipsawed from a low of 8 cents up to 25 cents, and back to 16 cents at the moment. It looks like a single buyer put in a large market order because they ran the price from 9 cents all the way to 25 cents on high volume of more than 4,000 contracts, spending less than $700 in the process. The Iowa Electronic Market is as the name implies, a market, with prices set by buyers and sellers, not bookies making odds.

This rally was the opposite of action on October 19, when a large seller hit all the bids and drove the price down from 14 cents to 9 cents on more than 4,000 contracts.

10.26.2016

The White Party Gets A Shot in the Arm

Last week I wrote The White Party Grows, but I didn't think it would grow this quickly. Back then I wrote:
The remaining conservakin who fear being called racist, will instead fear being called race traitor by former Bernie voters. If it merges into the Right (most likely bringing over environmentalism and some form of welfare statism), the white-left will inject identity straight into the bloodstream of white America.
What happens days later? Green party presidential candidate Jill Stein rings up fertility rates and student debt.
Cancel student debt to boost sagging family formation (Jill Stein)
“There are 43 million young people and not-so-young people who are locked into predatory student loan debt,” Stein said. “The birth rate is plummeting in this country because we have a generation that’s basically become indentured servants. They don’t have a place to live, they don’t have relationships, they don’t have a future, they don’t have families, they don’t have a job. We really have a generational crisis right now that we’re in the midst of. And there’s one way that crisis can be solved with the stroke of a pen. That debt can be canceled, and I’m the only candidate who will do that. Those 43 million votes have only one place to go.”
I agree with Face to Face who comments that universities should pay the cost. I wouldn't cancel the debt though, or seize university assets to pay down the debt (though I like that idea in general). A practical policy we could implement tomorrow is to change the law such that every university is a co-signer on student debt. Then you get a lot of incentives kicking in that shuts bad schools, drives down tuition and acceptance rates, and so on.

In any event, the fact that the Green party candidate is talking about fertility rates in the context of debt is big. Put aside her solution, she's firmly in alt-right territory with her diagnoses. Remind hte Greens that immigration also drives up carbon emissions and destroys natural habitats due to the need for new housing, roads, factories, etc. Do they know that Trump is going to take billions spent on corrupt UN politicians for supposed "climate change" work and instead spend it on cleaning up America's environment? Between that and immigration, Trump will be the greenest president since Nixon.

It's not yet white identity, but Jill Stein is talking about issues that whites on left and right agree on, or at least agree are problems. This will only grow as the country becomes more enriched by vibrancy, and white issues are sidelined for diversity and gibs.

10.19.2016

Trump Still a Cheap Bet, With Brexit Pattern Emerging

Still better than 7:1 odds.
The betting pattern that signals a Trump presidency isn't as remote as the world thinks
Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.

That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.

10.16.2016

The White Party Grows

In this election, the only smart vote for a dyed in the wool leftist is for Trump because it will cement the GOP as an opponent of globalization and empire, as well as create an opening to dislodge the establishment grip on the Democrat party.

If instead Hillary wins, the establishment's game will reach the final stage: millions of non-white and importantly, mostly anti-white immigrants, will give the establishment enough votes to never have to run a competitive election again. The GOP will be defeated from the start. The Bernie crowd will also be defeated internally, a microcosm of the GOP in national elections. The Democrat establishment will use the Color Revolution to push out the stale, pale and male Bernie voters. Bernie people will eventually realize this and abandon the Democrat party.

For all the Nazi LARPing, the Alt-Right has an anti-collectivist streak personified in Pinochet. The Alt-Right calls on whites to unify politically, but cannot create a larger identity because there is a cultural opposition to it. Not so in the far left. Furthermore, if the far left adopts white identity, there will be almost no one left to call whites racist. The remaining conservakin who fear being called racist, will instead fear being called race traitor by former Bernie voters. If it merges into the Right (most likely bringing over environmentalism and some form of welfare statism), the white-left will inject identity straight into the bloodstream of white America.

10.14.2016

Podesta Emails Confirm NRx Narrative

The Podesta emails are a steady stream of evidence for right-wing kooks and alt-right talking points. The left's leaders are either confirming they want the public ignorant and compliant:
or they're dropping red pills discussing how blacks, Muslims and Roma are losers wherever they go:
It’s no brain surgery, but the media have long failed to provide a clear credible answer. They are unable to come up with an answer or don’t like the answer that’s staring them in the face. The main reason behind successful immigration should be painfully obvious to even the most dimwitted of observers: Some groups of people are almost always highly successful given only half a chance (Jews*, Hindus/Sikhs and Chinese people, for example), while others (Muslims, blacks** and Roma***, for instance) fare badly almost irrespective of circumstances. The biggest group of humanity can be found somewhere between those two extremes – the perennial overachievers and the professional never-do-wells.
No one is surprised by the emails. The kooks already know the left is out to get them, and anyone who has honest progressive/liberal friends knows they think almost exactly like the Alt-Right on a lot of issues. So what exactly is going on in America?

Clearly, if you publicly say these things you are in trouble. So we have a taboo, a social rule against discussing something. The Alt-Right/Trumpkins are white trash, low status scum because they say publicly what even the highest levels of the progressive elite are thinking. But why can't it be said publicly?

Saying these things conflicts with the public faith, which is equality. Everyone must believe in equality, otherwise the whole leftist-built political system comes crashing down. If equality doesn't exist, literally the entire program created by the left since the New Deal, the assumption underlying nearly all of their programs, is blown away. (It goes all the way to the Enlightenment; they may or may not have gotten that far.)

If you're a monk, you're not going to let on that you think Jesus was just a man, because if everyone believed it, or lay people knew a lot of monks lacked faith, it would destroy the Church's raison d'être. You'd have a very strong incentive as a disbelieving monk, to publicly attack those who disbelieve with increasing intensity because you would know in your heart the truth being spoken. You would fear it greatly because you yourself believe it, and to admit it would be to admit everything you stand for, and what brings you wealth and power, is based on a lie. The Cathedral is a religion based on a lie, and it must accelerate its persecution of heretics to make up for the collapse of the faith.

Equality is a lie, and everybody (who matters) knows it.

The Lamentations of the Progressives

A Citigroup executive had the Obama administration's cabinet picked out in October 2008.

The Most Important WikiLeaks Revelation Isn’t About Hillary Clinton
Michael Froman, who is now U.S. trade representative but at the time was an executive at Citigroup, wrote an email to Podesta on October 6, 2008, with the subject “Lists.” Froman used a Citigroup email address. He attached three documents: a list of women for top administration jobs, a list of non-white candidates, and a sample outline of 31 cabinet-level positions and who would fill them. “The lists will continue to grow,” Froman wrote to Podesta, “but these are the names to date that seem to be coming up as recommended by various sources for senior level jobs.”

The cabinet list ended up being almost entirely on the money.
One might consider this good preparation, but for the progressives, it means they're really spectators in American politics. The Democrat Party lets them stomp on the faces of the religious, conservatives, white people and men, but that's it. There's no real power for them.
Many liberal pundits have talked about the need to focus exclusively on Donald Trump, and the existential threat he presents, in the critical period before Election Day. And there is a logic to that idea: Trump would legitimately be a terrifying leader of the free world. But there are consequences to the kind of home-team political atmosphere that rejects any critical thought about your own side. If the 2008 Podesta emails are any indication, the next four years of public policy are being hashed out right now, behind closed doors. And if liberals want to have an impact on that process, waiting until after the election will be too late.

Who gets these cabinet-level and West Wing advisory jobs matters as much as policy papers or legislative initiatives. It will inform executive branch priorities and responses to crises. It will dictate the level of enforcement of existing laws. It will establish the point of view of an administration and the advice Hillary Clinton will receive. Its importance cannot be stressed enough, and the process has already begun.
I have news for you buddy, the Clintons have been in power a long time. Not only is it already decided, much of it was probably decided in 2007.

The progressive foot soliders are the tools of the regime, but have no real power. Sure, they can get things like gay marriage passed, but the elite don't care. Hillary is anti-gay marriage. All she cares about is clearing out opposition to Empire. And progressives are cheaper than slaves. No chains or overseers required, no food or clothing. They pay progressive soldiers with 50 retweets and 100 likes.

Do You Feel Sovereign?

Internet users in China are more powerful than American voters.

Ban on Passenger X-ray Scans at Chengdu Airport After Outcry
Environmental protection authorities have ordered Chengdu's international airport to stop using X-ray scanners to screen travelers during security checks amid rising public concern over radiation exposure.

An official from the Ministry of Environmental Protection's (MEP) National Nuclear Safety Administration told Caixin on Wednesday that the ministry has advised its provincial branch to take action against the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport authority in the southwestern province for violating national radiation-safety rules.

The Sichuan Environmental Protection Department, a local branch of the MEP, issued a notice on Wednesday ordering Chengdu airport to immediately remove its X-ray body scanners as it continued its investigation.

The moves came after internet users began to express concern last month over potential health hazards linked to radiation exposure after the airport installed full-body X-ray scanners at security checks and amid reports that railway authorities in the city were also said to be adopting the technology.

10.12.2016

The Cathedral Projects Its Desires onto Trump

Trump "insults" foreign leaders with calls for things like Muslim bans, yet we have zero evidence that this would affect policy in a negative way. Instead, we have good reason to believe he would get along better with many foreign leaders because he's a pragmatist. Meanwhile, the Cathedral is running the most vicious anti-Russia propaganda effort since the Cold War, and Russia is noticing.

Be Warned: Russia Is Reading US Bluster As a Sign of War. And Preparing Accordingly
We analysts were responsible for picking up warnings from Moscow and other key capitals that the U.S. news media often missed or downplayed, much as the major news outlets today are ignoring the escalation of warnings from Russia over Syria.

For instance, Russian defense spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov warned on Oct. 6 that Russia is prepared to shoot down unidentified aircraft – including any stealth aircraft – over Syria. It is a warning that I believe should be taken seriously.

It’s true that experts differ as to whether the advanced air defense systems already in Syria can bring down stealth aircraft, but it would be a mistake to dismiss this warning out of hand. Besides, Konashenkov added, in a telling ex-ante-extenuating-circumstance vein, that Russian air defense “will not have time to identify the origin” of the aircraft.

Trump Now Approaching 7:1 Odds

Trump is in a free fall in the betting/prediction markets. If you think the polls are wrong, there are panicked sellers. You can buy in size at low prices if you want to put money where your mouth is. Full disclosure: I have put money on Trump. I like the odds.

LA Times Poll Confirms Trump Slump

Brexit wasn't like this. Brexit was in the lead several times in the weeks ahead of the final vote. It turned down in the final days, but (and this is key) history showed voters typically shy away from taking the final step in these votes. Look at Quebec independence, the Scottish vote on independence, when it is a close race it almost always breaks to the Remain side. Even though the polls were very tight, it made sense to believe Remain had it won. The polls were wrong though, even the ones that had Brexit winning, because Labour voters surprised by voting Leave in much higher numbers.

A vote for Trump is not as big as voting to Leave the EU, or a vote for independence. Even if Trump wins, 99% of the government is unchanged.

The polls may be wrong again because turnout and the demographic makeup of the actual voters is unknown, but the polls need to be much more wrong than British pollsters were in June. Also, we're reliably informed the GOP sabotaged voter registration drives in key swing states.

I followed the Brexit vote closely and it looked like Brexit would win until the final week. The financial markets surged as they priced in a win for Remain. It's possible this is another gaslighting and Trump will surge. If he does continue closing the gap in the days ahead, and most polls tighten to a 1 or 2 point Clinton lead, we could be in for a surprise on election night.
Where the presidential race stands today

The best counterpoint to the polls is the financial markets. The markets accurately reflect sentiment in a way that polls do not, because people are putting their money on the line.

HSBC: RED ALERT — get ready for a ‘severe fall’ in the stock market

A drop in the market shows people are worried, and worried people vote to change course.

The Lamentations of the Bernie Bros

If you're a Bernie Bro, what are you thinking after the latest round of Wikileaks Podesta emails? The Democrat Party and media are rigged against you, the NGOs and institutions you think are yours, are bought and paid for by billionaires. Blue pilled Rightists wasted years on futile efforts aimed at electing the Outer Party. Yet there is a Red pill. For the Bernie Bros, there is only another Blue Pill. There is no waking up from the nightmare, they are the creation of the very thing they hate. They are the tail of the Ouroboros.

10.10.2016

Trump Falls Back Below 5:1 Odds

If you believe the polls are wrong you could do worse than taking a flier on the prediction or betting markets.

Exit: Infogalactic

Alternative technology companies are rising to take the place of converged institutions. Gab.ai is a communications replacement for Twitter, while the now publicly launched Infogalactic replaces Wikipedia. This is only a first step. Please dump wikipedia and use Infogalactic. The goal is not to become a right-wing version of wikipedia, but to succeed where wikipedia failed as it became increasingly converged.

INFOGALACTIC: an online encyclopedia without bias or thought police

Zürich, Switzerland. All around the world, thousands of users are accessing and editing the new online encyclopedia for the 21st Century, Infogalactic, which styles itself the Planetary Knowledge Core™. Conceived as a next-generation replacement for Wikipedia, the troubled online encyclopedia, Infogalactic is a dynamic fork of Wikipedia that is designed to supplant its predecessor by addressing the problems of bias, vandalism, harassment, abuse, and inaccuracy that have plagued the Wikimedia Foundation’s flagship project for years.

“Every notable public figure who has a page devoted to them knows very well what an inaccurate nightmare Wikipedia is,” said Vox Day, Lead Designer of Infogalactic, a computer game designer and bestselling philosopher. “The page about me there has had everything from my place of birth to the number of times I’ve been married wrong. And that’s not even counting the outright abuse, such as when Wikipedians replaced the entire page with a definition of a sexually-transmitted disease or with a string of obscenities.”

Infogalactic plans to solve the structural problems of a community-edited online encyclopedia through objectivity, proven game design principles, and a sophisticated series of algorithms. Currently in an operational Phase One, the Planetary Knowledge Core has a five-phase Roadmap that its founders claim will eliminate edit warring, significantly improve accuracy, neutralize vandalism and other forms of griefing, and render all forms of political bias on the part of administrators and editors irrelevant.

“The primary challenge facing any online wiki is the individual editor’s incentive to impose his perspective on everyone else,” said Renegade, the Operations Director of Infogalactic, who, as per the organization’s pro-anonymity policy, is known only by his handle. “Most people who contribute to an online knowledge base do so because they want to have their say, but in the end there can be only one perspective that is enforced by the site’s administrators. Infogalactic has solved that problem by embracing true objectivity and eliminating the enforcement incentive by moving from a centralized, vertically-stacked orientation to a decentralized, horizontally-distributed model.”

Infogalactic’s anti-bias architecture will permit users to select their preferred perspective and automatically see the version of the subject page that is closest to it based on a series of algorithms utilizing three variables, Relativity, Reliability, and Notability. This means a supporter of Hillary Clinton will see a different version of the current Donald Trump page than a Donald Trump supporter will, as both users will see the version of the page that was most recently edited by editors with perspective ratings similar to his own.

Read the rest of the press release at Infogalactic.

Seven Canons
Development Roadmap
Support Infogalactic

More at Vox Populi: Project Big Fork: Infogalactic

GOP Sabotage

The Inside Story of How the GOP Sabotaged Trump’s Voter Registration Drive
Donald Trump’s get out the vote efforts have been sabotaged at every level by the GOP, sources report exclusively to this reporter. Some of the sabotage is obvious and clear, and others is more subtle. Their motivations for sabotage vary from personal and professional jealousy to financial.
People thought Trump would destroy the GOP, but they didn't expect the cause of death would be self-inflicted mortal wounds.

Vox: GOP Sabotage

10.09.2016

Odds of GOP Congress Tumble

The GOP managed to do one thing in their Trump panic: wreck their odds for Congressional control.

10.07.2016

Hillary Warned Goldman Sachs a Basket of Losers Could Capture GOP

Update: I didn't read closely enough, she's talking about Bernie voters too.

The most salient part of this is how Wall Street is openly aligned against the American people. It is one thing to be corrupt, tilt the field in your favor, and profit from it. It's another to intentionally inflict pain on the people as the Democrat party and Wall Street conspire to do.

10.06.2016

Brexit Polling Had Leave in the Lead

Several polls had Leave winning the Brexit vote. There was a move in favor of Remain at the end, with the Leave lead shrinking in the polls showing a Leave lead, and the Remain lead growing in polls with Remain ahead. Still, there were a lot of polls showing Leave ahead. Since all the other similar votes broke for the "Remain" side, such as Scottish independence, people assumed Remain would win.

Right Ascendant

The Ritual Humiliation of Misunderstanding Power
I re-iterate; if people believe as we do, that the various social, governmental, and economic changes wrought by the political left are damaging to our way of life and the things we value, then what on earth is their motivation for empowering Conservatives? Conservatives pledge to do absolutely nothing to stop the left, and instead beclown themselves with free speech theatrics that no college dean or professor cares about. What a sweet deal for our opponents.All they ever have to worry about is 'being faced with opinions they don't like', while we are threatened with censorship, physical violence, jail, etc. Conservatives are usually the ones to point out how hard it is to win a war when you play by one set of rules, and the enemy plays by another, yet they fail to understand this is one the key reasons that Liberals have been stamping on their faces for decades. Maybe its part of this pathetic 'tribe of liberty' mentality pushed by Jonah Goldberg and his ilk:

" [...] whatever our differences with American liberals may be, conservatives understand that our argument with them is still within the family. The fighting is intense, but we’re all trying to figure out what it means to live in this country bequeathed to us by the American Revolution and the Enlightenment."

No, you are not in their "family". They don't believe in families, they believe in ideologically tinged warfare in the name of evil's emancipation. The only reason that this warfare isn't conducted with force of arms is that, looking at their own track record, they find the success average is far higher in parliaments and senates as opposed to trenches somewhere in Majadahonda. There is a segment of the voting public in the United States who are pulling the lever for Trump, consciously or subconsciously, because they believe he will give the left a bloody nose. Whether he will or not is besides the point, the fact is that some people are smelling the roses aboard Flight 93. They're sick of pretending that right wing ideas are equivalent to left wing ideas, and complaining when leftists don't do things that they are in no way obligated to do. If you want an idea to be heard at a university, then run it. Recognize where power lies, and whether you hold it or not. If you don't, then make it so that you do, and waste no time wondering what the other side will think of you. When you have power, use it.

The message to those on the right: don't get equal. Get even.

Children As Accessories

Weimerica Weekly – Episode 41 – Accessory Kids

10.05.2016

Conservatives Were Warned

From 2010: America’s Ruling Class — And the Perils of Revolution
The ruling class’s appetite for deference, power, and perks grows. The country class disrespects its rulers, wants to curtail their power and reduce their perks. The ruling class wears on its sleeve the view that the rest of Americans are racist, greedy, and above all stupid. The country class is ever more convinced that our rulers are corrupt, malevolent, and inept. The rulers want the ruled to shut up and obey. The ruled want self-governance. The clash between the two is about which side’s vision of itself and of the other is right and which is wrong. Because each side — especially the ruling class — embodies its views on the issues, concessions by one side to another on any issue tend to discredit that side’s view of itself. One side or the other will prevail. The clash is as sure and momentous as its outcome is unpredictable.

In this clash, the ruling class holds most of the cards: because it has established itself as the fount of authority, its primacy is based on habits of deference. Breaking them, establishing other founts of authority, other ways of doing things, would involve far more than electoral politics. Though the country class had long argued along with Edmund Burke against making revolutionary changes, it faces the uncomfortable question common to all who have had revolutionary changes imposed on them: are we now to accept what was done to us just because it was done? Sweeping away a half century’s accretions of bad habits — taking care to preserve the good among them — is hard enough. Establishing, even reestablishing, a set of better institutions and habits is much harder, especially as the country class wholly lacks organization. By contrast, the ruling class holds strong defensive positions and is well represented by the Democratic Party. But a two to one numerical disadvantage augurs defeat, while victory would leave it in control of a people whose confidence it cannot regain.
He foresees the rise of white identity, or at least the conditions that demand it:
Yet to defend the country class, to break down the ruling class’s presumptions, it has no choice but to imitate the Democrats, at least in some ways and for a while. Consider: The ruling class denies its opponents’ legitimacy. Seldom does a Democratic official or member of the ruling class speak on public affairs without reiterating the litany of his class’s claim to authority, contrasting it with opponents who are either uninformed, stupid, racist, shills for business, violent, fundamentalist, or all of the above. They do this in the hope that opponents, hearing no other characterizations of themselves and no authoritative voice discrediting the ruling class, will be dispirited. For the country class seriously to contend for self-governance, the political party that represents it will have to discredit not just such patent frauds as ethanol mandates, the pretense that taxes can control “climate change,” and the outrage of banning God from public life. More important, such a serious party would have to attack the ruling class’s fundamental claims to its superior intellect and morality in ways that dispirit the target and hearten one’s own. The Democrats having set the rules of modern politics, opponents who want electoral success are obliged to follow them.

The Death of Conservatism

PDM attacks the conservatives who are wholly leftist progressive in their thought:
The Case Against “the Conservative Case. . .”
Anyway, I do not concede that tighter immigration and trade policies will contract the American economy. But even if I knew they would, I would still favor them because I think, at this point, a smaller pie more evenly distributed among fellow citizens is a more urgent priority than a larger pie with every new slice going to the top. That’s to say nothing about all the attendant costs and collateral damage of mass immigration, even if one accepts that it’s always “good for the economy,” which I don’t. And even if I did, I would still support the right of the sovereign people to curtail or stop it at any time, for any reason.

Pethokoukis can’t because he has absorbed the core premises of the Left. “That’s racist!” This points to one of the deepest problems with “conservative intellectualism.” It accepts, out of conviction or fear or both, every restriction the Left places on it. The left rules out-of-bounds any discussion of the cultural or political effects of immigration as “racist,” and the conservatives go along. Hence they can only talk about immigration in economic terms, as if human beings were widgets.
He concludes with:
If so, I think we’ve finally found some common ground. If you’re going to treat me like an enemy, I may as well start acting like one. As I’ve also written, those of us who still call ourselves “conservatives” are going to have to have big argument. People like Pethokoukis and myself—who appear to have nothing culturally, intellectually, or politically in common any more—are going to end up on opposite sides, to the extent that we aren’t already.

I don’t know James Pethokoukis. But I know lots of “conservatives” just like him: eager, even giddy, to throw anyone ostensibly on their side to the Leftist wolves.

I’m tired of being shot in the back my “friends.” It’s high time to turn around and let them shoot me in the face, in frank acknowledgement that I am their enemy.

Truth is, there’s nothing “conservative” about any of these people. But who cares about the word anymore? If they want to fight like dogs over who gets that bone, let them have it. Read me out of “conservatism.” Actually, you can’t fire me—I quit! If “conservatism” requires going to the wall for open borders, foolish trade deals, endless war, and head-in-the-sand “optimism,” to say nothing of routine denunciation of “racism” that’s far more imagined than real, then I am not conservative. I’ll take “patriotic” and “sane” instead.

As those of us inclined toward this way of thinking desert, or are ejected from, what’s left of “conservatism,” the movement will accelerate its decades-long drift toward ever-closer collaboration with its ostensible opponent. Within the first four years of the second Clinton Administration, don’t be surprised to see “A Conservative Case for Reeducation Camps.” Perhaps James Pethokoukis will write it.
As with his Flight 93 article and follow up response to critics, PDM makes the articulate Alt-Right case against conservatism.

Thinking about the changes underway, I believe we are witnessing the power of the Internet reaching full bloom. The power of politics and media and the academy, to a large extent the Cathedral, is built upon control of the Narrative, control of the microphone. The Cathedral does not allow you to use the microphone if you are not promoting the Cathedral. It's not all rah-rah Cathedral all the time, allowing some dissent promotes the idea that the Cathedral is open and tolerant. But don't expect to hear any real opposition, it will either be defanged opposition, or so far out there as to be laughable, such as the FBI staffed KKK.

You can have a managed democracy with control of the microphone because you can control the conversation and manufacture consent. Most people "retweet" what they hear. You present a left-right paradigm, or a red-blue, or a Coke-Pepsi, and most people will adopt one or the other side's arguments. If someone thinks we should be talking about another topic, or thinks the breakdown should be different, don't give them the microphone. Or if they managed to grab it, lower their social status. Many people "retweet" to show status.

The Internet puts everyone on the same level as the Cathedral in the realm of communications. A single individual has the same potential audience reach as the New York Times. "We democracy now" might well be the motto of 2016, as what's unfolding is not merely populism, but the destruction of political gatekeepers. The Cathedral, both conservative and progressive wings, can rail about populism, but ultimately their complaint is with democracy.

The conservative is in the unenviable position, taking punches from all sides. The Alt-Right is populist and democratic, but rejects egalitarianism and universalism at the tribal level. The conservative calls them racist. Neoreaction does the Alt-Right one better and rejects democracy too. If conservatives were mostly opposed to populism, they'd be heading in the direction of Neoreaction. They don't attack democracy though, they attack the expansion of democracy into the arena of public debate. It isn't the populism they have a problem with, but the message. The same position as the progressives.

Conservative appeals to egalitarianism and universalism unmask them as progressives, and their opposition to populism unmasks them as elitists. They are the Outer Party of the Cathedral, but serve no purpose if they cannot get the Right to submit to Cathedral rule. Conservatism is dead.

Related: After the Republic
This election is about whether the Democratic Party, the ruling class’s enforcer, will impose its tastes more strongly and arbitrarily than ever, or whether constituencies opposed to that rule will get some ill-defined chance to strike back. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the republic established by America’s Founders is probably gone. But since the Democratic Party’s constituencies differ radically from their opponents’, and since the character of imperial governance depends inherently on the emperor, the election’s result will make a big difference in our lives.

...We have stepped over the threshold of a revolution. It is difficult to imagine how we might step back, and futile to speculate where it will end. Our ruling class’s malfeasance, combined with insult, brought it about. Donald Trump did not cause it and is by no means its ultimate manifestation. Regardless of who wins in 2016, this revolution’s sentiments will grow in volume and intensity, and are sure to empower politicians likely to make Americans nostalgic for Donald Trump’s moderation.

The Best Argument for Voting Trump

An argument to make with fence sitters: If you vote for Hillary Clinton, nothing changes.

Whatever it is they want to change will not change under a President Clinton. She will be up for re-election in 2020. The Democrat Party is hers until 2024. The GOP will either be destroyed or the GOPe will win the 2020 nomination.

If Trump wins, the GOPe is dead and Bernie Sanders is vindicated. His stock rises in the Democrat party and his supporters will likely choose the 2020 nominee.

If you want change (and think voting works), you must vote Trump.

10.04.2016

Where Did It All Go Right?

A post at Social Matter asks Where Did It All Go Wrong?. It mocks the endless debates about where, in history, things went wrong. If we could pinpoint a moment or moments, then we'd have a good idea of what not to do moving forward.

Although it can turn into a pointless exercise, it's ultimately useful. Evolution works. More attention should be paid to what went right though, because evolution works. The reason why Exit is so attractive is because we already have great templates.

As for where it went wrong, I don't know what time frame is appropriate, but I suspect the generational cycles (4 according to Strauss & Howe) is probably a good approximation for tracing most problems. Many things we'd call problems today are also cyclical in nature, such as decadence. Every civilization has seen it at the top. These should be ignored or dealt with. They won't disappear as long as human nature exists in its present form.

Some ideas survive generational cycles. Egalitarianism and universalism have existed about 400 years as extant ideas actively shaping the Western (now entire) world. Christianity has existed for millennia. The individualism that can be traced back at least as far as the Jutes, Angles and Saxon invaders who were organized by boat and made their own settlements, repeated more than 1000 years later by the Mayflower, will be repeated in the future when our descendants colonize space.

The Alt-Right is acting on the generational time scale. A key event has been identified: the 1965 immigration act. Either this is rolled back or not. If yes, proceed to the next step. If not, fail.

NRx is looking farther back, looking at deeper issues such as egalitarianism. Correcting it will take many generations, particularly to do it right. Doing things quickly usually means doing it badly. Communists tried to kill everyone who didn't like sharing. They ended up destroying all morality and creating some of the most corrupt nations on Earth.

There's probably no need to go back more than 400 years. What proceeds before are cycles of the same. What is constant has lasted millenia, and will stand or fall on its own.

The longer the problem has existed, the less effort it will actually take to undo it. If egalitarianism is turned back, it will be through philosophy, religion, literature. A few men writing meaningful works will slowly change minds over generations. For problems nearer in time, such as those identified by the Alt-Right, more effort is required.

If egalitarianism is false, then it will be defeated as surely as rock gives way to water over the centuries, as long as someone starts taking a piss on it. Rolling back the 1965 immigration act will require much effort and the odds of success far lower.

The Second Great Depression

Japan is the most aggressive user of QE and it has failed.
There Really Is Nothing Left to the Money Illusion

10.03.2016

Bettors Say GOP Will Control Both Houses

Most people don't vote strategically and ticket-splitting has collapsed: Ticket splitting reached a 92 year low in 2012

You could make a case for greater ticket splitting in 2016 if there's a large number of GOP voters who will not vote Trump, but I read it as the markets disagreeing about the outcome. The Congressional market is pointing to a Trump victory.

10.02.2016

Learning the Taboos

This list has made it into the mainstream media and hilarity ensues.
What’s more, once a code like this is widely known, it becomes much easier for users of it to be shamed or disregarded by their peers. That’s what happened with Pepe the Frog, the de facto mascot of the alt-right, which has gone from an underground symbol of racism to an official “hate symbol,” as certified by the Anti-Defamation League (prompting the creator of the cartoon frog to disavow its use by the alt-right, and declare that he’ll vote for Hillary Clinton). And the triple parentheses were re-appropriated by Jews and the left as a symbol of solidarity, co-opting the original, racist meaning.
The Chinese government provides a good template for online censorship. It bans certain sensitive words on social media, forcing Chinese netizens to create alternatives. Superficially, what's happening in China and the West is the same.

It differs in the official states. Private censorship in American is legal, but "un-American." In China it is state policy. In America, anyone could become a target of the mob for posting something "offensive." In China, one first gets posts removed. Then if persistent, a chat with police. One doesn't accidentally get sanctioned in China.

Also, Twitter engages in shadow bans and along with Facebook will remove trending topics, but for the most part the censorship is openly discussed and even cheered by the media. In China, the state-controlled media tends to downplay censorship. While censorship is sometimes discussed as a technical matter, what is being censored is not discussed because...it's censored.

In China, censorship mostly revolves around the legitimacy of the state and the party running it. It's about getting as close to lese majeste as possible without invoking it. In America, censorship is about enforcing taboos and policing group membership. In China, the actual "enemies of the state" end up with the more severe punishment and you probably only hear about it because Western media is reporting it. There is no audience beyond the other activists. In America, the target isn't even the final object. The victims who lose their jobs or become social targets are the vessel, they are a random execution for the rest of the country to witness. Enemy and ally alike.

Which brings us to the university system and this article that appeared around the same time: WHAT CHINESE, SINGAPOREAN UNIVERSITIES CAN TEACH US ABOUT ACADEMIC FREEDOM
In China, social scientists and humanists are freer by far than they were under Mao Zedong ( 毛澤東 ), but are still heavily restricted when it comes to publication on issues such as the policies of the top leadership, elements of the history of the Chinese Communist Party, and issues to do with contemporary social unrest, religion, and the formation of civil society organisations. Off the record, many Chinese scholars grumble that academic freedom has become more restricted in the past two years in particular. Yet still the ranking numbers for China’s major universities climb. The idea that if political scientists are not free, then physicists cannot flourish, may not be right.
The Chinese and Singaporean universities are rising in the rankings because if you don't care about local politics, you have more academic freedom than in much of the West and given existing trends, this will become more true in time. There is a severe cost to censorship, even if carried out in the private economy.

The simplest and most likely explanation for what we're witnessing is we're approaching the point of the revolution eating its own in America, but with a few retrograde holdouts still available. The revolution will eat Yale and Missouri professors if necessary, but if "racist trolls" want to jump in front waving their arms, it makes an inviting snack. We need a new 2 minutes of hate every 2 minutes, otherwise people will stop supporting the regime.

Another explanation is that whereas the Chinese government is threatened by words such as liberty and democracy, the Cathedral is genuinely threatened by a list of slurs. A sovereign who strictly controls liberty and the process for choosing leaders will censor discussion of liberty and democracy to defend its legitimacy. If calling people Skypes and Googles threatens the legitimacy of the Cathedral...

I can imagine a theocracy might ban pornography, and might need increasingly sophisticated ways to stop people from tweeting gay porn at people. But if it was Christian it should stop at that, or if not, only the most egregious offenders would be targets for sanction. If gay porn tweeters were randomly selected for public shaming and punishment as if that was the worst thing happening in society, it would be strange thing. It would suggest the regime felt this was one of the best ways of ensuring its legitimacy. But that's insane.

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