Sunday, June 11, 2017

Stay Redpilled on Economy

Economy emerges as bright spot for Trump

U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

One data point doesn't make a recession. The economy sucks because we're in a depression. Lots of data looks as if it could roll over into recession, but that has happened several times over past 8 years. Each time, at least one central bank stepped in with a massive intervention. The last was China in 2016.

The Narrative of a good economy also doesn't help Trump. His economic agenda will run up the deficit and it won't stop because the economy is in a depression. Kansas Republicans voted to raise taxes this week after revenue growth didn't increase.

Conservatism is dead.
We are near the peak of the Laffer Curve: cutting taxes reduces revenues permanently.
Even if there's some growth, entitlements and tax-eating immigrants are driving up costs faster than revenues.
Tax reform will require shifting the tax burden from producers to consumers.
Paul Ryan's BAT is a move in the right direction.

The global monetary system is broken.
Economic reforms won't accomplish much until global monetary reform is addressed.
Without reform, conditions can only be improved at the margins: tax reform, better trade deals, remove tax-eating illegal aliens and refugees.

The more Trump and Republicans think the economy is good, the more likely they will be tossed into the political woodchipper.

Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past 8 years. Blips of hope emerged before to be be subsumed by the overwhelming force of depression.

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