Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Republican Congressmen Shot

Two Republican Congressmen shot, along with security officers, after gunman opens fire at a Congressional baseball practice.

The cycle theories of history, ranging from the Generations Theory of Strauss & Howe, to Peter Turchin's model of elite overproduction and various social measures (such as level of immigration, wealth disparity), to mood theories such as Socionomics, all point to a crisis period. Most of the theories also predict a more significant crisis. The Generations models maps at least to the 1930s. The Turchin model maps to periods of violence such as the anarchist wave and the 1960s, but also the Civil War. If you believe some of the bolder Socionomics forecasts, this cycle maps to the 1700s, the end of the 1784-2000 expansion wave.

The cycle theories predictive ability is looking good.

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