Tuesday, April 11, 2017

No God Emperor Without Empire

Black swans are random events that smash fragile systems. It is easier to identify fragile systems and predict how a negative event might unfold, but it is difficult to predict who, what, when, where. Lots of short-sellers saw the dotcom bubble, but nobody knew when it would stop. The 2008 financial meltdown was predicted at least 2 years in advance and many people correctly predicted a negative event, but the catalyst and extent of the damage was unknown. To people such as Federal Reserve Chairman Benjamin Shalom Bernanke and Joe Sixpack, it was totally unexpected. Many people who predicted the event incorrectly believed it would damage the U.S. dollar, instead of greatly strengthening it. World War I is perhaps the best example in military history.

A White Swan is the opposite: an unexpected positive event. Fusion reactors and cancer cures. Or the revival of American power. America is in relative decline because India and China are rising, because the developed world is aging, but President Obama made America look weaker than it was because he didn't use American power. President Trump has no such qualms. Bush the Elder, Bill Clinton and Bush the Younger also made America look weak because they refused to exercise power solely in the American interest. President Trump wants to use American power to benefit America.

Syria and North Korea have been thorns in America's side, but what if they are paper tigers in the face of American power? What if under Trump, the U.S. military is only shock and awe, flattening one nation after another as it picks up and leaves the rebuilding costs to the Saudis, South Koreans, Chinese and others? What if Assad is gone in a month and North Korea folds faster than Saddam's Iraq? What if Trump tells the Saudis and Qataris: you will have your gas pipeline, but it will be made with American steel and owned by Kinder Morgan?

What if the only way to stop a militant American President is for Russia or China to draw their own red line, but through diplomacy or fear of a global war, they don't?

The White Swan (or Black Swan depending on your perspective) is an America that successfully uses its military power. An America that uses its military power to successfully prop up its economy and currency. At the extreme, that the Neocons actually have a good strategy if the guy at the top isn't worried about body counts and flattened cities. That America can do false flags anywhere, anytime, and successfully turn global opinion in its favor.

We still don't know what's going to happen, but many people are assuming war is coming and that the United States will be on the losing end. The White Swan is that they're right about the war, but totally wrong about the outcome. Everyone was right about Trump's willingness to use American power, but perhaps totally wrong about how he would use it.

You wanted a God Emperor. You got one.

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