Sunday, December 11, 2016

Trump Questions the One China Policy

The One China Policy (Taiwan is a part of China) is China's policy. It wants all nations to adopt its policy.

Trump says he's not so sure America will continue that policy if China doesn't work with the U.S. on other issues.

Donald Trump hints US 'One China' policy could end

Taiwan is to China as Cuba is to the United States, times 10,000. Leaving aside the legitimacy of the CCP if it loses Taiwan, if foreign powers control Taiwan, China has a big problem. Unlike the United States, which has long coastlines with no nearby foreign power, the Chinese coast is almost entirely blocked by Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines. Then there is the disputed South China Sea. If you want to bottle up the Chinese navy, holding Taiwan is key.

China is fighting over disputed islands in the East China Sea in part because that would break Japan's ability to control access to the Pacific.

Japan Has Set Up a Radar Station in the East China Sea

Meanwhile Taiwan is like all other nations on Earth: nationalism is growing. Support for independence is growing and greatest among the youth. Unlike leftism, nationalism isn't something people outgrow. Once an identity is developed, people stick with it.

China's economy has a large credit bubble and an overvalued currency. It cannot give the United States major concessions on trade, nor can it allow its currency to appreciate versus the dollar, unless the dollar were to tumble. That doesn't appear likely for the next couple of years. China and the U.S. need to find a win-win scenario, where Chinese exports can grow to offset concessions on imports. Otherwise, it is USA win, China lose.

The Chinese sometimes create a crisis to force negotiations on an issue. They don't seek a rise in tensions, but to bring parties to the table. Westerners view aggravating tensions as an aggressive maneuver and often respond in kind.

Russia is China's greatest ally (not in terms of loyalty). If Russia is going to get a better deal in the West and South, maybe it won't aggravate the United States in the East, where China is a larger threat anyway.

China has been crowding the plate against Obama, because he plays with softballs and throws like a girl. Now Trump is pitching. He's playing hardball and he just threw a fastball up and in that barely missed China's chin.

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