Wednesday, October 12, 2016

LA Times Poll Confirms Trump Slump

Brexit wasn't like this. Brexit was in the lead several times in the weeks ahead of the final vote. It turned down in the final days, but (and this is key) history showed voters typically shy away from taking the final step in these votes. Look at Quebec independence, the Scottish vote on independence, when it is a close race it almost always breaks to the Remain side. Even though the polls were very tight, it made sense to believe Remain had it won. The polls were wrong though, even the ones that had Brexit winning, because Labour voters surprised by voting Leave in much higher numbers.

A vote for Trump is not as big as voting to Leave the EU, or a vote for independence. Even if Trump wins, 99% of the government is unchanged.

The polls may be wrong again because turnout and the demographic makeup of the actual voters is unknown, but the polls need to be much more wrong than British pollsters were in June. Also, we're reliably informed the GOP sabotaged voter registration drives in key swing states.

I followed the Brexit vote closely and it looked like Brexit would win until the final week. The financial markets surged as they priced in a win for Remain. It's possible this is another gaslighting and Trump will surge. If he does continue closing the gap in the days ahead, and most polls tighten to a 1 or 2 point Clinton lead, we could be in for a surprise on election night.
Where the presidential race stands today

The best counterpoint to the polls is the financial markets. The markets accurately reflect sentiment in a way that polls do not, because people are putting their money on the line.

HSBC: RED ALERT — get ready for a ‘severe fall’ in the stock market

A drop in the market shows people are worried, and worried people vote to change course.

No comments:

Post a Comment



Blog Archive