You have to pay almost 39 cents if you want a Trump contract now (2.6:1 odds, down from more than 11:1 days ago). Volume for Mr. Trump was more than 10,000 contracts yesterday.
If you really want to bet big money (the entire IEM winner-take-all presidential market is only $113,000 currently) then currency markets are where to play. The Mexican peso will tank if Trump wins and the Chinese yuan might be devalued if they decide they need to act before he takes office. China cannot allow its currency to rise or even stay level with the U.S. dollar if it continues to rise, and it is going to fall anyway.
Today’s Conventional Wisdom - This #WorldCup has been clear evidence that immigration has changed the “culture” of Europe—for the better. — Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) July 14, 2018 Trump...
31 minutes ago