Thursday, September 15, 2016

Neocons Vote Trump and Progressives Tried for Treason

Xinhua in 2013: U.S. fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world
As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.

Emerging from the bloodshed of the Second World War as the world's most powerful nation, the United States has since then been trying to build a global empire by imposing a postwar world order, fueling recovery in Europe, and encouraging regime-change in nations that it deems hardly Washington-friendly.

The developing and emerging market economies need to have more say in major international financial institutions including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, so that they could better reflect the transformations of the global economic and political landscape.

What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.
China issued SDR bonds in August. The IMF issues SDRs and could become the global central bank to the world.

More recently: Duterte’s Tilt Toward China Risks Upending U.S. Strategy in Asia
Just when some of China’s neighbors were seeking to curtail its expansionism, along came Rodrigo Duterte.

In less than three months on the job, the 71 year-old Philippine leader has used expletives in talking about U.S. President Barack Obama and vowed to end cooperation with the U.S. military in both fighting terrorism and patrolling the disputed South China Sea. He’s moved to boost economic and defense ties with China and Russia.

While Duterte is unpredictable -- one day calling China “generous" and the next threatening a “bloody" war if Beijing attacked -- his behavior has undermined U.S. efforts to rally nations from Japan to Vietnam to Australia to stand up to China’s military assertiveness.

In doing so, he risks shifting from the 1951 Philippine-U.S. defense treaty, which has been a bedrock of American influence in the region. While Duterte has said he’ll respect the alliance he’s repeatedly stressed the need for an “independent foreign policy" and questioned America’s willingness to intervene if China were to seize territory in the South China Sea.
Neocons have a consistent logic. The neocons want America to rule the world. Let's assume the American economy continues growing at its present rate or even a little faster, and suffers no major financial or economic crisis ever again. Even in this optimistic scenario, American economic power will decline in relative terms because India alone will add trillions to the global economy. After relative economic power declines, cultural, military and political power follows. Therefore, if you are a neocon, job #1 is to smash your enemies' economies: China and Russia. Russia's relatively easy to smash, it is a petro state. Take down oil, take down Russia (and kill funding for Islamic terror to boot). Fracking takes care of supply, and natural gas exports could steal market share. Bonus: by restricting U.S. imports of oil, the supply of petrodollars dries up and unleashes compounding effects of deflation by driving up the value of remaining dollars.

In order to kill oil demand, kill off the largest source of demand growth: China. The country is on the verge of a financial crisis and currency collapse and Donald Trump Could Wipe $420 Billion Off China’s Exports. If China didn't want to deal with President Trump, his economic policy could be the falling at terminal velocity piano that breaks the camel's back. Trump could flatten America's opposition without firing a shot. It's possible the only currencies left standing after a China depression would be the US Dollar, British Pound and Swiss Franc. Sure, he might take down the global trading system, but you can't have everything. Hillary is obviously the superior choice for neocons because they can continue the current policies, but if neocons don't understand that economic warfare is the ace up America's sleeve, they need to quit the Empire game.

Progressives should love Trump. We have finally reached the point of American retreat, where the inevitable path forward involves a decline in relative American power. Trump accepts this. But Trump is Evil because he does the worst thing Progressives can imagine: he wants a realistic foreign policy designed to maximize American power. In order to be a good Progressive, one must ask, will this action hurt America? If the answer is yes, do it. If not, find a new policy. The crowning achievement of the Obama Administration is the Iran deal. Another case of unintentional fail by Obama. A seemingly horrid deal for America, but by strengthening Iran, he increases the likelihood of Shia-Sunni conflict, or at least gives exploding Muslims something to focus on besides Paris and New York. The Shia are 10% of the Muslim world. Arm them to the teeth with all the latest weaponry and you're still only giving them a fighting chance. (Iran's oil fields are already in decline as are its fertility rates, so if oil tanks it might push them to the brink. Hello, neocons?) The Progressives are at the point in the game where the best strategy is to not play the game. They are at the apex of American collapse. Wrecking domestic tranquility is still possible, but every move abroad is a "loss" because American power crested in 2003. Every purposeful retreat that husbands resources improves America's long-term outlook, but every failed intervention emboldens the Progressives mortal enemy: the Jacksonsians. Progressives policies are reverse Xanatos gambits as long as they are in charge.

An alternative scenario is Trump wins, Russia and China deal. Then there's no chaos, but instead an improvement in global stability. Trump trades economic gains for reduced military/political intervention. Americans like the deal and re-elect Trump. New deals make U.S. intervention abroad more difficult and the room for neocons and Progressives to maneuver is reduced. This would be the worst of all outcomes for neocons and Progressives.

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