8.15.2016

Trump-Clinton Polls Look Like Brexit

Keep an eye on the trend in the Clinton lead. As long as Trumps lows continue moving higher, it indicates he is gaining. As with Brexit, he has a low ceiling of support. He can win, but he's not going to swing out to a 6 point lead barring an extreme scenario. Brexit polls were consistently in favor of Remain, but the gap closed as time went on.

A Trump win is going to be a demographic surprise with white Democrat crossover or possibly lower than expected minority turnout, the same way Brexit was helped by Labour support. The polls are going to be wrong because they stick to traditional methods. However, even if the polls are constructed poorly, as long as they're consistent in their methodology, they will pick up shifts in support.

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