Thursday, August 04, 2016

Clinton Will Keep the Cathedral Running

The anti-establishment case for Hillary Clinton
Clinton seems positioned to fail spectacularly if elected. She does not have the ability to charm and quiet the press or the public the way Obama or Bill Clinton did. Her one political trick is trying to outwork her problems, and to show the public she is putting in lots of effort. But America may soon face another recession. Obama bequeaths to her America's involvement in four civil wars across the Middle East. America's involvement in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen has no actual support from the American public beyond its indifference. Another bomb or riot that turns into American casualties, and already her presidency is put on the defensive.

Clinton is experienced at failing. She failed to get health-care reform in the 1990s. She failed to win the Democratic nomination in 2008 when the process wasn't tilted entirely in her favor. The one piece of policy entrepreneurship she brought to the State Department was her advocacy for intervening in Libya's civil war, an ongoing disaster.

A vote for Clinton is a vote for a status quo that, when left to itself, can barely hide its exhaustion, self-hatred, and incompetence much longer. H.L. Mencken said that "democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." The establishment deserves Clinton as its tribune. She reveals its competence as mere cleverness rather than wisdom. She is its idealism turned into a cold glare. She is the promise of revolution turned into a shoddy grift and a mirthless job.

Who will be left to defend the establishment when she's had her turn with it?
Economists expected more trouble under Obama, but he lasted 7.5 years with no crisis. There's no reason Hillary couldn't last for 4 or 8 years before the bottom drops out. The public would grow angrier and probably more violent over time, but a crisis isn't guaranteed. Also, Obama really is the worst president ever. It's possible the economy improves and life gets better under Clinton simply because Obama has lowered the bar so much.

A complication is the anti-establishment crowd has hung their hat on Trump. A narrow loss by Trump will probably destroy the neoconservative/#NeverTrump wing, but a larger loss would probably set up a GOP establishment candidate in 2020 or 2024. That's a waste of potentially 12 years.

A larger complication is demographics and immigration, and this is the only reason you need to vote Trump. Nothing is helped by adding tens of millions of more low IQ foreigners.

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