Friday, June 24, 2016

Throw Away Your Black Pills, The Fire Has Started

I see there are some black pills going around about the Brexit. If nothing changes, then political subterfuge is certainly possible, but something major has occurred.

Here's the white pill.

We are in the middle of a depression and the central bankers are trying to keep currencies in a tight range, to avoid competitive devaluations and prevent a U.S. dollar bull market and deflationary collapse. If "The Powers That Be" used Brexit as an excuse to punish Britain by trashing the pound, they also have gifted the UK a free win in the competitive devaluation battle. The UK has won everything. Everything that is "bad" for the UK, like falling stock prices, is happening to everyone. The tumbling pound is great in terms of financial war, the UK is "beating" everyone.

In order to pop a black pill, you have to assume the British establishment reverses today's loss and gains more political power, and they use it to block an exit. The EU gives Britain better terms of membership. The euro doesn't fall to a new low, the U.S. Dollar Index doesn't rally above 100 and keep moving higher. Italy, Spain, Greece and other piggies do not have another debt crisis, no major European banks go under. All other EU nations with nationalist movements, or socialists like Podemos in Spain who want to renegotiate debt terms, fail to gain any traction (the Spanish election is Sunday and Podemos is surging). If the dollar goes over 100 there will be debt crises all over the globe. If euro has a crisis, Brexiters will scream for the UK to get out immediately to avoid paying for a bailout. China's economy is tottering, cannot take any deterioration in global trade and China could take down the global economy by itself.

The globalists still have an edge, but they have far more risk of something going wrong, and that something leading to a cascade of things going wrong. Whereas had Remain won tonight, it wouldn't have really improved the outlook for the EU over the next 5 years. Instead, the globalists took a stinging loss at the ballot box and then financial markets compounded it by send the price of literally every single asset in the "wrong" direction for globalists.

Update: Looking at the price moves on Friday, here's the shocker: there's been no cost for Brexit.

Even the European banks, which I warned about above, are not at new lows. There are a couple of things to worry about, such as a new low for the Chinese yuan, but for the most part, Brexit is a giant nothing burger for the markets directly impacted by the decision.

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