Sunday, June 19, 2016

Carve Up the Blue With Political Preppers

Driving Through Dying Blue Towns
Lawn signs whisk by. The reliably blue area only has blue on blue elections. Good old Mr. Democrat is still in politics, a reliable, local face for the establishment Democrats, but there is a challenger from the Bernie wing who at twenty-five has your friends on Facebook’s approval and wants you to “expect more”. More what? Your home town is a perfect little hideaway from the rest of the world. Then you put on the news and realize something is not quite right. The local news A-block now has crime stories, not moose-on-the-loose laughers. The governor speaks the truth, but it is in an uncouth manner so the good liberals can voice disapproval of him for stating the obvious. How did heroin get here? Where are the children?
Vermont has a population of 626,000. The population is already going into decline. If the Cathedral has a killzone, Vermont is in it.

Less than 20% of Vermont residents are under the age of 18, about 125,000.

You don't skate to where the puck is, you skate to where the puck will be.

Vermont Population Projections – 2010 - 2030

In general, an age cohort projection model starts with the population total for a particular age group at a given point in time. The Census bureau reports most age cohorts in 5 year groups and thus, five year
groups are used in this model. At the end of a ten year period, the population for an age cohort is equal to the beginning population total minus the mortality and plus or minus the migration during the ten year period. For example, In year 2000, according to the US census, Vermont’s 25-29 age cohort population was 34,182.

Ten years later, in year 2010, Vermont’s 35-39 age cohort population was 36,358 - according to Census reporting. Between 2000 and 2010, about 50 people in that age cohort died (0.15% mortality rate over the ten year period).

By taking into account the population increase and mortality rate for the the age cohort, the migration rate can be calculated.

Migration = 36,358 – 34,182 + 50 = 2226 or 6.51% of the 2000 five year age cohort

“Projecting” into the future, would suggest that the 2020 population of 35-39 year olds will equal the 2010 population of 25-29 year olds (35,441) minus mortality (again, about .15%) plus the 6.51% net migration rate. 2020 projected population of 35-39 year olds = 37,700
The Free State Project moved 20,000 people to New Hampshire for its better political climate, but NH has a population of 1.3 million.

If the same number of people moved to Vermont (10,000 couples) and had on average 3 children each, they would capture 20% of the state's future demographics with that first generation.
Decades ago, many blue states voted on legislation pushing, manufacturing, natural resource, and paper companies out of their states. Those same voters felt righteous supporting environmental causes funded by elites and specific industrial interests to continuously ratchet up environmental regulations until all those manufacturing jobs were off-shored. Thousands, if not millions, of jobs left those states, and welfare from the federal government and service economy jobs took their place. Those blue collar jobs did not require mountains of non-dischargeable student loans and could provide for a family. Not everyone was cut out to be a PhD in physics, but many could become a draftsman or a reliable worker in the lumberyard. If your hometown had even worse luck, those social services pulled in an underclass that changed the streets at night within a decade. If those newcomers have children, you do not want your kid in school with them.
Vermont has gutted its economy and is cursed with poz, but demographically, the numbers don't look better in many other states. Down South, the only state that comes close is Tennessee. Wild cards are diseases such as Zika and global cooling. There will be few riots when the welfare checks stop; the lazy will migrate south. As it stands today, things are going well, energy is cheap, the dollar is strong, and people are still unable to pay heating bills:
More Americans Dying From Hypothermia, CDC Says
Those most at risk for hypothermia include seniors, the mentally ill, people addicted to alcohol or drugs, and those living alone, according to the analysis published Feb. 20 in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, a publication of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hypothermia is a dangerous drop in body temperature.

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